# V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 69%, runner-up 51% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vvaren-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:06:01.588Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 69%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 51%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 69¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x07a43571c8c72f5d007d7289f8df4242d39670b84a1a7a573ded0f340625b319 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x72e6ac4ae0c7f7f7f27d9cc4852345a4cd3ebfed1beed0c4069b343da355411d |
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x716f7759f189926a037690bcd9e84cd003b779c66706262aebe0cdd7bd32c36d |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x39f38467e79479039a76669f40c9b492b970f73ab332ba1e7106facd5b703efc |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) | 17¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-v-polymarket-0xa74e6079ee29906a5e317f14da648768eca1570ba620d2426cb68392a228fec0 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x2871c097f22fc551b5aad11d4f65a65bfe943e32a95e3503b19d3fabd76ac97c |
| Fagiano Okayama (-1.5) | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x1b0ea45be3a63fcf68d481151d5534fdb085c83681909da802751bbb4ce0e439 |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-v-polymarket-0x93980066a52457352e6e9e617e27606df45e4f2c57cd51c3cc87b772315662bf |
| Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0xf65661563cdb776db46549f455dc77ef0c1cc89a0b39b126c4d7f3dfedc81cc3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 63 | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 61 | 51 | 41 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) +4pp 28→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 +3pp 31→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects trader expectations for the outcome of a V-Varen Nagasaki versus Fagiano Okayama match, with current odds favoring one outcome at 51% versus alternatives at 33% and lower. The 18-point gap between the leading contract and runner-up suggests meaningful disagreement in the market rather than consensus. Key drivers of probability movement would include recent team form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage considerations. The match result itself serves as the primary catalyst—once played, the outcome will definitively resolve all three contracts. Market depth remains relatively shallow, with modest trading volumes suggesting limited institutional participation and potential for price movement on new information about team composition or conditions closer to match day.

### Key factors

- Current leader holds 51% vs. runner-up at 33%, indicating material but incomplete confidence in one outcome
- Polymarket liquidity across these contracts totals under $1K daily volume, typical of lower-tier football matches with sparse participation
- Three-way winner-take-all structure means any shift in win probability redistributes across exactly three discrete outcomes
- Recent team performance data (wins, goals, home/away splits) would be primary inputs for directional probability reassessment
- Match scheduling, team injury reports, and head-to-head historical results remain unmeasured by current prices but predictable pre-game

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vvaren-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets

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