# V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama

> V-Varen Nagasaki leads at 39%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vvaren-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:06:02.079Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: V-Varen Nagasaki at 39%
- Runner-up: Fagiano Okayama at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 39¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-v-varen-nagasa-polymarket-0xc5b7c979a47371ab2fe9076a24d53fedea1c81e0862768652bd11f3a181a53a4 |
| Fagiano Okayama | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-fagiano-okayam-polymarket-0x63a827ebe197128569d2af3ced9a787072488d1fbe24d4411dc0ad7d56698c8d |
| Draw (V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-draw-v-varen-n-polymarket-0xc6a6ba02b3d1b36b00c6cf424f1a58db93bc43bfa8af4ece206bda2aeda4cf59 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | V-Varen Nagasaki | Fagiano Okayama | Draw (V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 43 | 34 | 32 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 34 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 | 34 | 32 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Fagiano Okayama will win an upcoming match against V-Varen Nagasaki in Japan's J. League, currently priced at 35%. The narrow gap between Fagiano Okayama (35%) and V-Varen Nagasaki (33%) reflects a competitive matchup with limited market differentiation. Contract depth shows significant uncertainty around match scoring patterns—the O/U 1.5 contract at 62 cents suggests markets expect a low-scoring encounter. Liquidity is minimal across all contracts ($0 trading volume in 24 hours), indicating sparse market participation and potential for price instability. The resolution depends entirely on the scheduled match outcome. Key factors moving this probability include each team's recent form, head-to-head historical records, player injury status, and home-field advantage if applicable.

### Key factors

- Market liquidity is essentially absent (zero 24-hour volume across all contracts), limiting confidence in price discovery
- Over/Under 1.5 contract at 62 cents suggests expectation of low-scoring outcome, constraining win probability through goal distribution
- Probability spread between top two outcomes (35% vs 33%) is within typical noise range, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than a clear favorite
- V-Varen Nagasaki listed at 45 cents in broader J. League winner market suggests longer-term odds differ from this match-specific pricing
- Zero trading activity means prices reflect initial contract setup rather than responsive market-making to new information

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vvaren-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama

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