# V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vvaren-nagasaki-vs-nagoya-grampus-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:06:00.557Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 39¢ | +1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-nagoya-grampus-polymarket-0x25132a85784c8a4d7e9033d1b409b60703b4985d5404a86669c3e9b22c0dc79e |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x39f38467e79479039a76669f40c9b492b970f73ab332ba1e7106facd5b703efc |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5) | 17¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-v-polymarket-0xa74e6079ee29906a5e317f14da648768eca1570ba620d2426cb68392a228fec0 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-1.5) | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0524ea5d7f1c73584bdce3de66b22fb30eacd6a1ef0bc3b034e5e9e3d3be9f8d |
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x716f7759f189926a037690bcd9e84cd003b779c66706262aebe0cdd7bd32c36d |
| Fagiano Okayama (-1.5) | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x1b0ea45be3a63fcf68d481151d5534fdb085c83681909da802751bbb4ce0e439 |
| Both Teams to Score | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x6cfc8d4ea986763ba0a10eacb817822ac38af23c8d9d5c31d3a98358ab1f7b8f |
| O/U 1.5 | 69¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x07a43571c8c72f5d007d7289f8df4242d39670b84a1a7a573ded0f340625b319 |
| O/U 3.5 | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xec59e7436c79b9327cf1b9416da41ee55e799520f89361d59944360a652c8852 |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5) | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0xa4181124cdfbaaec195dd2665c734963f1e390267c4c321eb161640f93743aa9 |
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc12420d54a5f52a0e3e6b567c04c4a504cb40f1dfc473234c15c5c8db9fda052 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x72e6ac4ae0c7f7f7f27d9cc4852345a4cd3ebfed1beed0c4069b343da355411d |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) | 13¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0x97c68a154393c087eef54aa2afd6a2705e4ec25a08f8c01ad141b53ca8510456 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x2871c097f22fc551b5aad11d4f65a65bfe943e32a95e3503b19d3fabd76ac97c |
| V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5) | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-v-polymarket-0x93980066a52457352e6e9e617e27606df45e4f2c57cd51c3cc87b772315662bf |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xe57d5ef3322ea2c9e06b55f96c797d127a6f99dff16c551f4067262033acf288 |
| Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-more-markets-f-polymarket-0xf65661563cdb776db46549f455dc77ef0c1cc89a0b39b126c4d7f3dfedc81cc3 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-2.5) | 13¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0a811879a31f5a3a43f79b658cfc5b4c22d780bef0efae98d73e39c0f4b1d88b |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x164f65bdba63b31b0fe7b75fed96ea69c9a6aba1d5daf015c3c6e417b85e9ef8 |
| Draw (V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama) | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/v-varen-nagasaki-vs-fagiano-okayama-draw-v-varen-n-polymarket-0xc6a6ba02b3d1b36b00c6cf424f1a58db93bc43bfa8af4ece206bda2aeda4cf59 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Fagiano Okayama (-2.5) +4pp 28→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) +3pp 30→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 +3pp 31→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Nagoya Grampus (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/vvaren-nagasaki-vs-nagoya-grampus-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=vvaren-nagasaki-vs-nagoya-grampus-more-markets

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.