# Who will win the WA-4 primary

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wa4primary
Updated: 2026-08-06T07:20:51.987Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-08-31

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Meier | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-wa-4-primary-wesley-meier-kalshi-kxwa4primary-26-wmei |

## Analysis

The 74% probability indicates that one candidate is favored to win Washington's 4th congressional district primary, with a substantial but not overwhelming lead over alternatives. This level reflects current polling, fundraising, and endorsement dynamics that markets assess as favoring the front-runner. The probability could shift based on candidate debate performance, late-breaking endorsements, or changes in voter sentiment captured by new polling. The primary election itself will resolve this uncertainty definitively. Until then, the position sits well above even odds but leaves meaningful room for challengers, suggesting the race remains competitive despite the leader's current advantage.

### Key factors

- The 74% price reflects a leader with significant but non-dominant support, leaving approximately 26% combined probability for all alternative candidates
- Market volume and price consistency across contracts can indicate confidence level—higher volume generally suggests stronger conviction among traders
- Any significant polling release or endorsement shift in the weeks before the primary could move prices materially in either direction
- Early voting patterns and turnout models, once available, provide empirical data that either reinforce or challenge current market positioning
- The specific primary date determines resolution timing and represents the hard deadline when this uncertainty converts to a known outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wa4primary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wa4primary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.