# Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 81,000 jobs

> Above 80,000 jobs leads at 97%, runner-up 95% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/waaeroemp
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.615Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 80,000 jobs at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 82,000 jobs at 95%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $38K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 80,000 jobs | 97¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t80000 |
| Above 82,000 jobs | 95¢ | −2pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t82000 |
| Above 81,000 jobs | 95¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t81000 |
| Above 83,000 jobs | 88¢ | +8pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t83000 |
| Above 84,000 jobs | 65¢ | +3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t84000 |
| Above 85,000 jobs | 27¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t85000 |
| Above 86,000 jobs | 16¢ | −10pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t86000 |
| Above 87,000 jobs | 8¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t87000 |
| Above 88,000 jobs | 6¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t88000 |
| Above 90,000 jobs | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t90000 |
| Above 89,000 jobs | 4¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t89000 |
| Above 91,000 jobs | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washingtons-annual-average-employment-in-aero-kalshi-kxwaaeroemp-27apr30-t91000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 80,000 jobs | Above 82,000 jobs | Above 81,000 jobs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | — | 77 | 85 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | 87 | 89 |
| 2026-08-20 | 96 | 91 | 95 |
| 2026-08-22 | — | 89 | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-19 · Above 84,000 jobs +20pp 27→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 84,000 jobs +19pp 47→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Above 83,000 jobs +15pp 52→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 84,000 jobs −15pp 66→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 83,000 jobs +14pp 67→81¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates an 85% probability that Washington state's aerospace manufacturing sector will employ at least 81,000 people on an annual-average basis in 2026. The aerospace industry is a significant employment driver in Washington, concentrated around major contractors and suppliers. Current market pricing suggests traders believe employment will likely stay above this threshold, though the declining probabilities for higher employment levels (77% for 82,000+, 52% for 83,000+) indicate meaningful uncertainty about stronger growth. Key drivers include Boeing's production rates, defense spending trajectories, and supply-chain recovery. The market will resolve when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases 2026 annual employment data, typically in early 2027. Regional economic conditions and potential workforce shifts to other sectors represent sources of downside risk.

### Key factors

- Boeing's commercial aircraft delivery rates and defense contract volumes directly influence Washington aerospace employment levels
- Historical 2025 employment baseline and month-to-month trend data through August 2026 will anchor actual annual average
- Supply-chain capacity constraints and labor availability in the aerospace sector could limit hiring above 81,000 despite demand
- Federal defense spending decisions and multi-year contract awards announced before year-end 2026 signal future production needs
- BLS employment reports released monthly provide early signals; significant deviation from 81,000 range by Q4 2026 would shift resolution odds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/waaeroemp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=waaeroemp

## License

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