# Will Suzzanna Tanner advance in the 2026 WA-03 primary

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 63% across 9 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/waprimary
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.811Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 63% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $474

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 89¢ | +4pp | $333 | kalshi | /markets/will-marie-gluesenkamp-perez-advance-in-the-2026-w-kalshi-kxwaprimary-0326-mper |
| Brent Hennrich | 13¢ | ±0 | $67 | kalshi | /markets/will-brent-hennrich-advance-in-the-2026-wa-03-prim-kalshi-kxwaprimary-0326-bhen |
| Hunter Gordon | 13¢ | — | $44 | kalshi | /markets/will-hunter-gordon-advance-in-the-2026-wa-01-prima-kalshi-kxwaprimary-0126-hgor |
| Suzan DelBene | 92¢ | +1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-suzan-delbene-advance-in-the-2026-wa-01-prima-kalshi-kxwaprimary-0126-sdel |
| Antony Barran | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-antony-barran-advance-in-the-2026-wa-03-prima-kalshi-kxwaprimary-0326-abar |
| Mary Silva | 78¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mary-silva-advance-in-the-2026-wa-01-primary-kalshi-kxwaprimary-0126-msil |
| Edwin H Feller | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-edwin-h-feller-advance-in-the-2026-wa-02-prim-kalshi-kxwaprimary-0226-efel |
| Rick Larsen | 92¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rick-larsen-advance-in-the-2026-wa-02-primary-kalshi-kxwaprimary-0226-rlar |
| John Braun | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-braun-advance-in-the-2026-wa-03-primary-kalshi-kxwaprimary-0326-jbra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 34 |
| 2026-06-11 | 82 |
| 2026-06-18 | 84 |
| 2026-06-25 | 34 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez +4pp 83→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Brent Hennrich −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Brent Hennrich +3pp 13→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Antony Barran +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' estimate that Suzzanna Tanner will secure enough votes to advance past the primary stage in Washington's 3rd Congressional District during the 2026 election cycle. At 46%, the market suggests roughly even odds she clears this threshold, indicating genuine uncertainty about her viability as a candidate. The primary result itself will be the decisive factor—determined by actual vote counts on election day. Factors influencing the current estimate likely include her name recognition, fundraising capacity relative to other candidates, polling numbers if available, and historical performance of candidates with similar profiles in the district. The low trading volume ($20 in 24 hours) suggests limited market depth, meaning the probability could shift notably with additional participant interest or new information about candidate positioning or endorsements.

### Key factors

- Vote share threshold required to advance and total number of candidates competing in the WA-03 primary
- Campaign fundraising totals and spending relative to competing candidates
- Polling data or internal survey results showing Tanner's support levels among district voters
- Endorsements from established party figures or organizations that signal electoral viability
- Election date (August 2026 primary) and any significant campaign events or debates scheduled before voting

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/waprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=waprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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