# Will Washington statewide seasonally adjusted employment in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services for December 2026 be above 265,000 jobs

> Above 235,000 jobs leads at 96%, runner-up 95% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/watechemp
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.932Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-28

## Headline

- Leader: Above 235,000 jobs at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 240,000 jobs at 95%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $32K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 235,000 jobs | 96¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t235000 |
| Above 240,000 jobs | 95¢ | +2pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t240000 |
| Above 245,000 jobs | 94¢ | +38pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t245000 |
| Above 255,000 jobs | 92¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t255000 |
| Above 250,000 jobs | 91¢ | +7pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t250000 |
| Above 260,000 jobs | 53¢ | −11pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t260000 |
| Above 265,000 jobs | 20¢ | −10pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t265000 |
| Above 270,000 jobs | 9¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t270000 |
| Above 275,000 jobs | 5¢ | −5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t275000 |
| Above 280,000 jobs | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-washington-statewide-seasonally-adjusted-empl-kalshi-kxwatechemp-27feb28-t280000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 235,000 jobs | Above 240,000 jobs | Above 245,000 jobs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | 87 |
| 2026-08-20 | 94 | 90 | 50 |
| 2026-08-22 | 95 | 92 | 88 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Above 245,000 jobs +38pp 50→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 250,000 jobs +37pp 47→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 245,000 jobs −37pp 87→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 250,000 jobs −35pp 82→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 270,000 jobs −21pp 28→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contracts estimates the likelihood that Washington state's Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services sector will employ more than 265,000 people in seasonally adjusted terms by December 2026. The current 37% probability reflects moderate skepticism about reaching this threshold within the next four months. Employment growth in this sector depends on tech hiring trends, which have been volatile following the 2022-2023 downturn, and regional economic conditions in Washington's major metros (Seattle, Puget Sound). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases monthly state employment data, with the December 2026 figure scheduled for January 2027 release, providing the definitive resolution. Market pricing suggests traders see it more likely the sector stays below 265,000 jobs than exceeds it, though the graduated contract structure indicates meaningful probability mass at higher thresholds.

### Key factors

- Current Washington PST employment level as of mid-2026 and recent month-over-month hiring trends in the sector
- National tech sector hiring momentum and any major layoffs or expansion announcements at Seattle-area firms (Amazon, Microsoft, etc.)
- Broader U.S. economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy stance between now and December 2026
- Seasonal patterns in PST hiring and whether December 2026 aligns with typical year-end employment changes
- BLS release of November 2026 preliminary data in December, which typically precedes final December figures released in January 2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/watechemp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=watechemp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.