# Will Tie win the 1st Half

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 20 contracts — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc1h
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.953Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran wins 1st Half | 20¢ | +1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-iran-win-the-1st-half-iran-wins-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26egyiri-iri |
| France wins 1st Half | 45¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-france-win-the-1st-half-france-wins-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26norfra-fra |
| Argentina wins 1st Half | 63¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-win-the-1st-half-argentina-wins-1st-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun27jorarg-arg |
| New Zealand wins 1st Half | 7¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-zealand-win-the-1st-half-new-zealand-wins-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26nzlbel-nzl |
| Norway wins 1st Half | 17¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-norway-win-the-1st-half-norway-wins-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26norfra-nor |
| Jordan wins 1st Half | 6¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-win-the-1st-half-jordan-wins-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun27jorarg-jor |
| Iraq wins 1st Half | 8¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-iraq-win-the-1st-half-iraq-wins-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26senirq-irq |
| Portugal wins 1st Half | 38¢ | +2pp | $812 | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-win-the-1st-half-portugal-wins-1st-h-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun27colpor-por |
| Croatia wins 1st Half | 40¢ | −2pp | $706 | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-win-the-1st-half-croatia-wins-1st-hal-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun27crogha-cro |
| Tie 1st Half | 37¢ | −2pp | $644 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26norfra-tie |
| Spain wins 1st Half | 46¢ | −1pp | $422 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-win-the-1st-half-spain-wins-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26uruesp-esp |
| Egypt wins 1st Half | 28¢ | −2pp | $239 | kalshi | /markets/will-egypt-win-the-1st-half-egypt-wins-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26egyiri-egy |
| Tie 1st Half | 44¢ | ±0 | $179 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26cpvksa-tie |
| Algeria wins 1st Half | 20¢ | ±0 | $166 | kalshi | /markets/will-algeria-win-the-1st-half-algeria-wins-1st-hal-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun27dzaaut-dza |
| Panama wins 1st Half | 7¢ | ±0 | $146 | kalshi | /markets/will-panama-win-the-1st-half-panama-wins-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun27paneng-pan |
| Tie 1st Half | 44¢ | +2pp | $136 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun27crogha-tie |
| Tie 1st Half | 29¢ | −2pp | $92 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun26nzlbel-tie |
| South Africa wins 1st Half | 14¢ | — | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-win-the-1st-half-south-africa-wi-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun28rsacan-rsa |
| Tie 1st Half | 42¢ | −1pp | $73 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun27colpor-tie |
| Canada wins 1st Half | 41¢ | — | $73 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-win-the-1st-half-canada-wins-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1h-26jun28rsacan-can |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 25 |
| 2026-06-12 | 27 |
| 2026-06-19 | 33 |
| 2026-06-25 | 44 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · France wins 1st Half +4pp 39→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · France wins 1st Half −3pp 40→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Spain wins 1st Half +3pp 40→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Algeria wins 1st Half −3pp 24→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Tie 1st Half +3pp 31→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 29% tie probability in the 1st Half reflects the distribution of expectations across competing nations, with individual country win probabilities ranging from 6% to 44%. This aggregate suggests relatively balanced competitive outcomes or significant uncertainty about how the contest will unfold. The tie probability is inversely related to conviction in any single winner: if one nation's prospects strengthen, the tie probability typically declines as capital shifts to that outcome. Conversely, if conditions create more ambiguity about potential winners, tie odds may rise. The main drivers are the relative strength assessments of participating nations and any structural rules that affect the likelihood of identical scores or draws. Key upcoming developments would include any official announcement of final rules, participant confirmations, or historical precedent data that clarifies how often ties actually occur in comparable competitions.

### Key factors

- Individual country win probabilities sum to approximately 84%, leaving 16% unaccounted for in named outcomes, suggesting either unlisted competitors or structural uncertainty
- Japan carries the highest single-nation probability at 44%, making a Japanese victory the market's base case, while New Zealand at 6% is considered least likely among listed options
- The tie probability of 29% represents meaningful uncertainty about contest resolution, neither dominant nor negligible compared to leading individual outcomes
- Trading volume concentrated in Iran ($3106 24h vol) and Mexico ($2138 24h vol) suggests these nations drive current market dynamics and sentiment shifts
- No date or resolution event is specified in available data, indicating this market may depend on undefined temporal boundaries or announced competitive details

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc1h
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wc1h

## License

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