# Brazil wins by over 1.5 goals in the 1st Half

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 14 contracts — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc1hspread
Updated: 2026-06-25T21:20:50.206Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $50K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 16¢ | +2pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/france-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun26norfra-fra2 |
| Spain wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 15¢ | ±0 | $9K | kalshi | /markets/spain-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-s-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun26uruesp-esp2 |
| Argentina wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 29¢ | +2pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/argentina-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-ha-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun27jorarg-arg2 |
| Portugal wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 11¢ | +2pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/portugal-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-hal-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun27colpor-por2 |
| Norway wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 5¢ | +1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/norway-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun26norfra-nor2 |
| Canada wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 11¢ | — | $918 | kalshi | /markets/canada-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun28rsacan-can2 |
| Senegal wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 26¢ | +1pp | $886 | kalshi | /markets/senegal-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun26senirq-sen2 |
| Belgium wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 30¢ | +1pp | $834 | kalshi | /markets/belgium-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun26nzlbel-bel2 |
| England wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 30¢ | +1pp | $773 | kalshi | /markets/england-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun27paneng-eng2 |
| Egypt wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 10¢ | −1pp | $734 | kalshi | /markets/egypt-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-e-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun26egyiri-egy2 |
| Croatia wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 10¢ | +1pp | $364 | kalshi | /markets/croatia-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun27crogha-cro2 |
| Congo DR wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 9¢ | +2pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/congo-dr-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-hal-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun27coduzb-cod2 |
| Saudi Arabia wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 9¢ | — | $53 | kalshi | /markets/saudi-arabia-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun26cpvksa-ksa2 |
| Iraq wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 48¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/iraq-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-in-the-1st-half-ir-kalshi-kxwc1hspread-26jun26senirq-irq2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 3 |
| 2026-06-18 | 12 |
| 2026-06-25 | 17 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Portugal wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals −9pp 27→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Portugal wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals −9pp 18→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Belgium wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals +9pp 16→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Portugal wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals −8pp 41→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Portugal wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals −6pp 33→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves true if Brazil scores more than 1.5 goals in the first half of an upcoming match, currently priced at 4% probability. First-half goal markets typically reflect the compressed timeframe and defensive setup patterns that teams employ early in matches. The low probability suggests Brazil is either facing a strong defensive opponent, considered unlikely to break through early, or playing a team that historically maintains compact defending in opening periods. Market pricing across similar contracts shows Mexico at 11% as a relative outlier, while most other countries cluster near 3-4%, indicating these are generally rare events. The main drivers of this specific probability are Brazil's attacking form heading into the match, opponent defensive capabilities, and historical first-half scoring patterns in comparable fixtures. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and final scoreline during the first 45 minutes.

### Key factors

- First-half goals require early breakthrough, typically 20-30% less frequent than full-match scoring across major competitions
- Brazil's recent form in opening periods and opponent's defensive organization will directly influence execution opportunities
- Mexico contract trading at 11% (nearly 3x this level) suggests significant variance in perceived first-half scoring likelihood by opponent
- Historical data on this specific matchup and both teams' typical first-half tactical approaches would show baseline probability
- Team sheet composition, including attacking lineup availability and defensive personnel, affects early-phase dynamic potential

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc1hspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wc1hspread

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