# Over 0.5 1H goals scored

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 19 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc1htotal
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.363Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $33K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 1H goals scored | 40¢ | ±0 | $11K | kalshi | /markets/over-15-1h-goals-scored-over-15-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun27jorarg-2 |
| Over 0.5 1H goals scored | 78¢ | +3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/over-05-1h-goals-scored-over-05-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26nzlbel-1 |
| Over 2.5 1H goals scored | 20¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/over-25-1h-goals-scored-over-25-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26nzlbel-3 |
| Over 1.5 1H goals scored | 22¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/over-15-1h-goals-scored-over-15-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26egyiri-2 |
| Over 2.5 1H goals scored | 16¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/over-25-1h-goals-scored-over-25-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun27jorarg-3 |
| Over 0.5 1H goals scored | 58¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/over-05-1h-goals-scored-over-05-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26egyiri-1 |
| Over 3.5 1H goals scored | 5¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/over-35-1h-goals-scored-over-35-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun27jorarg-4 |
| Over 2.5 1H goals scored | 5¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/over-25-1h-goals-scored-over-25-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26egyiri-3 |
| Over 2.5 1H goals scored | 8¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/over-25-1h-goals-scored-over-25-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun27crogha-3 |
| Over 2.5 1H goals scored | 4¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/over-25-1h-goals-scored-over-25-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun27dzaaut-3 |
| Over 2.5 1H goals scored | 9¢ | +1pp | $994 | kalshi | /markets/over-25-1h-goals-scored-over-25-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26cpvksa-3 |
| Over 3.5 1H goals scored | 6¢ | +1pp | $691 | kalshi | /markets/over-35-1h-goals-scored-over-35-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26nzlbel-4 |
| Over 1.5 1H goals scored | 23¢ | −2pp | $630 | kalshi | /markets/over-15-1h-goals-scored-over-15-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun27dzaaut-2 |
| Over 1.5 1H goals scored | 44¢ | +2pp | $511 | kalshi | /markets/over-15-1h-goals-scored-over-15-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26nzlbel-2 |
| Over 0.5 1H goals scored | 58¢ | −3pp | $452 | kalshi | /markets/over-05-1h-goals-scored-over-05-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun27dzaaut-1 |
| Over 2.5 1H goals scored | 10¢ | ±0 | $358 | kalshi | /markets/over-25-1h-goals-scored-over-25-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun27coduzb-3 |
| Over 0.5 1H goals scored | 68¢ | ±0 | $238 | kalshi | /markets/over-05-1h-goals-scored-over-05-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26uruesp-1 |
| Over 1.5 1H goals scored | 32¢ | +3pp | $169 | kalshi | /markets/over-15-1h-goals-scored-over-15-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun27coduzb-2 |
| Over 0.5 1H goals scored | 67¢ | −1pp | $164 | kalshi | /markets/over-05-1h-goals-scored-over-05-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc1htotal-26jun26cpvksa-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 45 |
| 2026-06-12 | 13 |
| 2026-06-19 | 29 |
| 2026-06-25 | 7 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Over 0.5 1H goals scored +3pp 75→78¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Over 1.5 1H goals scored +3pp 35→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Over 0.5 1H goals scored −3pp 63→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Over 1.5 1H goals scored +3pp 29→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 30% probability that at least one goal will be scored in the first half of an upcoming match. The relatively low probability suggests expectations of a defensive or low-scoring opening period. Key factors influencing this level include the teams' typical first-half scoring patterns, their current form and attacking capabilities, defensive strength, and any relevant tactical considerations. Market participants appear to distinguish between this outcome and higher-goal scenarios—note the sharp price drop from 63¢ for 0.5+ goals to just 5¢ for 2.5+ goals, indicating substantial consensus that if scoring occurs, it's more likely to be limited. The market will resolve definitively once the first half concludes and official goal tallies are recorded.

### Key factors

- Difference between 0.5+ goal price (63¢) and 1.5+ goal price (27¢) suggests traders expect either no goals or exactly one goal as most likely outcomes
- Contract volume concentration ($45-67 24h vol on goal-related markets) indicates active pricing but relatively modest liquidity compared to typical major match markets
- The teams' recent first-half goal averages and defensive records will materially affect probability—teams averaging fewer than 0.5 goals per half would justify lower prices
- Match context unknown from provided data (league, teams, importance, conditions) but would typically drive 30% baseline significantly higher or lower
- Price of 30% implies roughly 1-in-3 chance, consistent with historical data that suggests many matches feature scoreless first halves

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc1htotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wc1htotal

## License

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