# Will Tie be the result of the 2nd Half

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 6 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc2h
Updated: 2026-07-13T04:20:48.676Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-26

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France wins 2nd Half | 38¢ | +6pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-france-win-the-2nd-half-france-wins-2nd-half-kalshi-kxwc2h-26jul14fraesp-fra |
| Tie 2nd Half | 36¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-be-the-result-of-the-2nd-half-tie-2nd-hal-kalshi-kxwc2h-26jul14fraesp-tie |
| Spain wins 2nd Half | 26¢ | +6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-win-the-2nd-half-spain-wins-2nd-half-kalshi-kxwc2h-26jul14fraesp-esp |
| England wins 2nd Half | 31¢ | — | $323 | kalshi | /markets/will-england-win-the-2nd-half-england-wins-2nd-hal-kalshi-kxwc2h-26jul15engarg-eng |
| Argentina wins 2nd Half | 29¢ | — | $234 | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-win-the-2nd-half-argentina-wins-2nd-kalshi-kxwc2h-26jul15engarg-arg |
| Tie 2nd Half | 39¢ | — | $89 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-be-the-result-of-the-2nd-half-tie-2nd-hal-kalshi-kxwc2h-26jul15engarg-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 27 |
| 2026-07-11 | 32 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · France wins 2nd Half +6pp 29→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Spain wins 2nd Half +6pp 22→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Tie 2nd Half +3pp 31→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market tracks the likelihood that the second half of a match ends in a tie. At 30%, the probability reflects moderate expectations for a tied outcome, suggesting ties are considered possible but not the most likely result. The current level appears driven by the specific teams involved and their historical tendency to draw in similar competitions. The match resolution itself will determine the outcome definitively—ties occur at a measurable rate in football competitions, typically ranging from 20-35% depending on the teams and match context. Key factors include team offensive capabilities, defensive stability, and whether the teams prioritize attacking or defensive tactics in the second half. The match will settle this prediction on its scheduled completion date.

### Key factors

- Historical draw rate between these specific teams in head-to-head or recent matchups
- Offensive and defensive strength of competing teams, which influences likelihood of scoring stalemate
- Team motivation and tactical approach (aggressive attacking vs. defensive positioning)
- Current market pricing at 17¢ per contract indicates low trading volume, suggesting limited consensus on true probability
- Comparison to win probabilities for individual teams (Iraq at 8¢, Germany at 46¢) shows draws weighted between top contenders

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc2h
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wc2h

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.