# Over 1.5 2H goals scored

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 17 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc2htotal
Updated: 2026-06-25T15:20:50.240Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 2H goals scored | 72¢ | ±0 | $609 | kalshi | /markets/over-05-2h-goals-scored-over-05-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun27colpor-1 |
| Over 0.5 2H goals scored | 81¢ | ±0 | $125 | kalshi | /markets/over-05-2h-goals-scored-over-05-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun27jorarg-1 |
| Over 2.5 2H goals scored | 22¢ | +1pp | $109 | kalshi | /markets/over-25-2h-goals-scored-over-25-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun27jorarg-3 |
| Over 0.5 2H goals scored | 64¢ | ±0 | $85 | kalshi | /markets/over-05-2h-goals-scored-over-05-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun27dzaaut-1 |
| Over 1.5 2H goals scored | 35¢ | −3pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/over-15-2h-goals-scored-over-15-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun27crogha-2 |
| Over 1.5 2H goals scored | 47¢ | +1pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/over-15-2h-goals-scored-over-15-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun27jorarg-2 |
| Over 1.5 2H goals scored | 49¢ | +1pp | $26 | kalshi | /markets/over-15-2h-goals-scored-over-15-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26norfra-2 |
| Over 2.5 2H goals scored | 11¢ | −2pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/over-25-2h-goals-scored-over-25-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun27crogha-3 |
| Over 2.5 2H goals scored | 20¢ | +2pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/over-25-2h-goals-scored-over-25-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26norfra-3 |
| Over 1.5 2H goals scored | 56¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/over-15-2h-goals-scored-over-15-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26nzlbel-2 |
| Over 0.5 2H goals scored | 75¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/over-05-2h-goals-scored-over-05-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26cpvksa-1 |
| Over 1.5 2H goals scored | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/over-15-2h-goals-scored-over-15-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26cpvksa-2 |
| Over 2.5 2H goals scored | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/over-25-2h-goals-scored-over-25-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26cpvksa-3 |
| Over 0.5 2H goals scored | 66¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/over-05-2h-goals-scored-over-05-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26egyiri-1 |
| Over 1.5 2H goals scored | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/over-15-2h-goals-scored-over-15-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26egyiri-2 |
| Over 2.5 2H goals scored | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/over-25-2h-goals-scored-over-25-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26egyiri-3 |
| Over 0.5 2H goals scored | 80¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/over-05-2h-goals-scored-over-05-2h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwc2htotal-26jun26norfra-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 41 |
| 2026-06-18 | 30 |
| 2026-06-25 | 49 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Over 0.5 2H goals scored +35pp 35→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Over 0.5 2H goals scored −34pp 69→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Over 0.5 2H goals scored +24pp 46→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Over 0.5 2H goals scored −23pp 69→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Over 1.5 2H goals scored +21pp 21→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 44% chance that at least two goals will be scored during the second half of an upcoming match. The current level reflects typical second-half scoring patterns, which generally see fewer goals than first halves due to tactical adjustments and player fatigue. Key drivers of this probability include the offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerability of both teams, weather conditions that may affect play, and substitution patterns that typically occur after halftime. The resolution will depend entirely on the final match outcome, with the actual goal count determining whether the threshold of 1.5 goals (meaning 2 or more) is reached. Factors that could shift expectations include recent team form, injury status of key players, and the specific tactical approach each side adopts after the break.

### Key factors

- Average second-half goal totals have historically been 30-40% lower than first-half totals in similar competitions
- Teams trailing at halftime typically increase attacking intensity, while those ahead may adopt defensive strategies
- Contract pricing inconsistency (33¢ to 42¢ on identical Over 1.5 second-half outcomes) suggests market uncertainty or liquidity constraints
- Weather conditions and pitch quality at match time can materially affect goal-scoring probability in the second half
- Substitution patterns and player fatigue acceleration in the final 45 minutes create different scoring dynamics than the opening period

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wc2htotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wc2htotal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.