# Will Amazon advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 53% across 20 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcads
Updated: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.877Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-19

## Headline

- Probability: 53% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disney | 73¢ | — | $526 | kalshi | /markets/will-disney-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fi-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-disn |
| Pepsi | 75¢ | −14pp | $483 | kalshi | /markets/will-pepsi-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fin-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-peps |
| Modelo | 84¢ | +5pp | $450 | kalshi | /markets/will-modelo-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fi-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-mode |
| Apple | 55¢ | −36pp | $447 | kalshi | /markets/will-apple-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fin-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-appl |
| Netflix | 49¢ | — | $338 | kalshi | /markets/will-netflix-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-f-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-netf |
| DoorDash | 88¢ | — | $321 | kalshi | /markets/will-doordash-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-door |
| Walmart | 16¢ | −11pp | $293 | kalshi | /markets/will-walmart-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-f-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-walm |
| Coinbase | 21¢ | −22pp | $278 | kalshi | /markets/will-coinbase-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-coin |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | 47¢ | −27pp | $214 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-chatgpt-advertise-during-the-2026-worl-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-open |
| Lego | 29¢ | −31pp | $160 | kalshi | /markets/will-lego-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fina-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-lego |
| Gatorade | 82¢ | +12pp | $133 | kalshi | /markets/will-gatorade-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-gato |
| Ford | 4¢ | −41pp | $130 | kalshi | /markets/will-ford-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fina-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-ford |
| Geico | 15¢ | −9pp | $99 | kalshi | /markets/will-geico-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fin-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-geic |
| Temu | 28¢ | — | $69 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fina-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-temu |
| Samsung | 67¢ | −50pp | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-samsung-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-f-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-sams |
| Anthropic / Claude | 25¢ | −14pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-claude-advertise-during-the-2026-wo-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-anth |
| Nike | 87¢ | — | $52 | kalshi | /markets/will-nike-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fina-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-nike |
| Amazon | 72¢ | — | $28 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fi-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-amaz |
| Gemini | 67¢ | — | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-gemini-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fi-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-gemi |
| Jeep | 72¢ | — | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeep-advertise-during-the-2026-world-cup-fina-kalshi-kxwcads-26jul19-jeep |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 55 |
| 2026-06-25 | 45 |
| 2026-06-26 | 37 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Samsung −50pp 76→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Ford −41pp 55→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Apple −36pp 61→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Lego −31pp 49→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Walmart −29pp 60→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates that traders estimate a 50% chance Amazon will purchase advertising time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026. The even split reflects uncertainty about Amazon's marketing strategy, as the company has historically prioritized digital advertising over traditional broadcast slots. Key considerations include Amazon's recent shift toward premium sports partnerships, the advertising rates for World Cup Final slots, and competitive positioning relative to other tech and retail companies. Market signals show comparable tech firms like Samsung (80¢) and Nike (89¢) have higher probabilities of appearing, suggesting traders view the World Cup Final as less central to Amazon's advertising mix than traditional retail or athletic brands. The resolution hinges entirely on whether Amazon's name or ads appear during the broadcast window of the final match.

### Key factors

- Amazon's historical advertising spending has concentrated in digital channels and streaming rather than live broadcast sports events
- The 2026 World Cup Final broadcast will occur on July 19, 2026, with official confirmation of all major advertisers typically announced 2-4 weeks prior
- Nike (89¢) and Samsung (80¢) command significantly higher probabilities than Amazon, indicating traders expect legacy consumer brands to prioritize World Cup advertising more heavily
- Amazon has increased sports marketing investments in recent years through AWS partnerships and sports streaming deals, providing a precedent for major broadcast commitment
- World Cup Final ad slots represent premium inventory with prices typically exceeding $5 million per 30-second spot, constraining the number of advertiser slots available

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcads
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcads

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.