# South Africa vs Canada

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 4 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcadvance
Updated: 2026-07-13T03:20:51.118Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-09

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9.3M

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To Advance: France advances | 59¢ | — | $5.7M | kalshi | /markets/france-vs-spain-to-advance-france-advances-kalshi-kxwcadvance-26jul14fraesp-fra |
| To Advance: Argentina advances | 45¢ | — | $1.8M | kalshi | /markets/england-vs-argentina-to-advance-argentina-advances-kalshi-kxwcadvance-26jul15engarg-arg |
| To Advance: Spain advances | 40¢ | — | $1.0M | kalshi | /markets/france-vs-spain-to-advance-spain-advances-kalshi-kxwcadvance-26jul14fraesp-esp |
| To Advance: England advances | 54¢ | — | $705K | kalshi | /markets/england-vs-argentina-to-advance-england-advances-kalshi-kxwcadvance-26jul15engarg-eng |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 50 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 50% probability indicates that prediction markets view South Africa and Canada as evenly matched for advancing in their matchup. The even split likely reflects uncertainty around team form, head-to-head records, and venue conditions. Key factors driving the probability include each team's recent performance metrics, injury status, and historical outcomes in similar competitive contexts. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the actual match result, which will immediately determine the outcome. Market participants are essentially pricing in a genuine competitive balance between the two teams based on available performance data.

### Key factors

- Head-to-head historical win rates and goal differential between South Africa and Canada in recent matchups
- Current squad injury status and player availability for both teams entering the match
- Venue location and home-field advantage dynamics affecting performance levels
- Recent form metrics including points accumulated and goals scored/conceded in preceding fixtures
- Market volume concentration across the two outcome contracts, indicating confidence or uncertainty among traders

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcadvance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcadvance

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.