# Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 9 contracts — refreshed 28 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcast
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.831Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-10

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ assists?: Mohamed Salah: 1+ | 6¢ | — | $680 | kalshi | /markets/mohamed-salah-1-assists-mohamed-salah-1-kalshi-kxwcast-26jun26egyiri-egymsalah11-1 |
| 1+ assists?: Lamine Yamal: 1+ | 21¢ | — | $499 | kalshi | /markets/lamine-yamal-1-assists-lamine-yamal-1-kalshi-kxwcast-26jun26uruesp-esplyamal10-1 |
| 1+ assists?: Pedri: 1+ | 13¢ | — | $172 | kalshi | /markets/pedri-1-assists-pedri-1-kalshi-kxwcast-26jun26uruesp-esppedr8-1 |
| 1+ assists?: Jude Bellingham: 1+ | 5¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/jude-bellingham-1-assists-jude-bellingham-1-kalshi-kxwcast-26jun27paneng-engjbelli5-1 |
| 1+ assists?: Dailon Livramento: 1+ | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/dailon-livramento-1-assists-dailon-livramento-1-kalshi-kxwcast-26jun26cpvksa-cpvdlivra14-1 |
| 1+ assists?: Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/charles-de-ketelaere-1-assists-charles-de-ketelaer-kalshi-kxwcast-26jun26nzlbel-belcdeke17-1 |
| 1+ assists?: Jeremy Doku: 1+ | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/jeremy-doku-1-assists-jeremy-doku-1-kalshi-kxwcast-26jun26nzlbel-beljdoku11-1 |
| 1+ assists?: Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ | 26¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kevin-de-bruyne-1-assists-kevin-de-bruyne-1-kalshi-kxwcast-26jun26nzlbel-belkdebr11-1 |
| 2+ assists?: Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/kevin-de-bruyne-2-assists-kevin-de-bruyne-2-kalshi-kxwcast-26jun26nzlbel-belkdebr11-2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | 10 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This reflects a market-implied 11% chance that Ayoub El Kaabi records at least one assist in an upcoming match or period. El Kaabi's assist probability is notably lower than comparable attacking midfielders and wingers in the contracts shown—Raphinha trades at 18%, Vinicius Junior at 13%, and Akram Afif at 11%. The gap suggests markets may be pricing in either reduced playing time, a deeper bench role, or fewer attacking opportunities compared to peers. Resolution depends on official match statistics and the specific timeframe of the event. Volume remains modest at $50 in 24-hour trading, indicating limited liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Shifts in this probability would likely reflect lineup changes, fixture difficulty adjustments, or team tactical announcements closer to the event date.

### Key factors

- El Kaabi's recent playing time and minutes allocation relative to competing attacking players on his team
- Comparative assist rates of similar-positioned players in recent matches to establish baseline performance expectations
- The specific opponent's defensive profile and how it typically defends against through balls or cutback plays
- Whether El Kaabi has been deployed primarily as a scorer versus a playmaker in recent tactical setups
- Official team news regarding injuries, suspensions, or tactical changes that could affect his role or field position

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcast
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcast

## License

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