# Will Lamine Yamal win the Best Young Player Award

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 12 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcaward
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:11.502Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 50¢ | +49pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-lamine-yamal-win-the-best-young-player-award-kalshi-kxwcaward-26byp-lyama |
| Rayan Cherki | 6¢ | — | $235 | kalshi | /markets/will-rayan-cherki-win-the-golden-ball-rayan-cherki-kalshi-kxwcaward-26gball-rcher |
| Neymar | 3¢ | +2pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-neymar-win-the-golden-ball-neymar-kalshi-kxwcaward-26gball-neyma |
| Kylian Mbappe | 8¢ | +1pp | $149 | kalshi | /markets/will-kylian-mbappe-win-the-golden-ball-kylian-mbap-kalshi-kxwcaward-26gball-kmbap |
| Lamine Yamal | 9¢ | +4pp | $57 | kalshi | /markets/will-lamine-yamal-win-the-golden-ball-lamine-yamal-kalshi-kxwcaward-26gball-lyama |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 7¢ | +4pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-cristiano-ronaldo-win-the-golden-ball-cristia-kalshi-kxwcaward-26gball-crona |
| Harry Kane | 9¢ | +4pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-kane-win-the-golden-ball-harry-kane-kalshi-kxwcaward-26gball-hkane |
| Lionel Messi | 8¢ | +4pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-lionel-messi-win-the-golden-ball-lionel-messi-kalshi-kxwcaward-26gball-lmess |
| Brazil | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-win-the-fair-play-award-brazil-kalshi-kxwcaward-26fpa-bra |
| Cape Verde | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cape-verde-win-the-fair-play-award-cape-verde-kalshi-kxwcaward-26fpa-cpv |
| Spain | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-win-the-fair-play-award-spain-kalshi-kxwcaward-26fpa-esp |
| France | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-win-the-fair-play-award-france-kalshi-kxwcaward-26fpa-fra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 2 |
| 2026-05-21 | 6 |
| 2026-05-28 | 22 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Lamine Yamal +49pp 1→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Spain −8pp 10→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Harry Kane −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Lamine Yamal +4pp 4→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Cristiano Ronaldo +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 34% probability reflects the market's assessment of Lamine Yamal's chances of winning the Best Young Player Award at the next major football tournament or award ceremony. Yamal's probability is shaped by his current form and age as a young prospect, balanced against competition from other emerging talents. The award recognition depends primarily on his sustained performance level over the relevant competition period and comparative standout moments against other eligible young players. The next major international tournament or season conclusion would be the key event determining whether Yamal accumulates the performances and visibility needed to claim this award over competing candidates.

### Key factors

- Yamal's playing time and performance statistics relative to other young player nominees during the award eligibility period
- Competition intensity from other young players who may have higher profile moments or breakthrough seasons during the same timeframe
- Tournament results and individual standout performances by Yamal in any major competitions held during the voting period
- Media coverage and voting patterns from previous similar awards to assess typical selection criteria and voting bloc patterns
- Age eligibility thresholds and specific award criteria set by the awarding organization for the upcoming year

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcaward
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcaward

## License

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