# Will Mexico be the best performing host nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 3 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcbesthost
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.104Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-02

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $84

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 40¢ | −3pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-be-the-best-performing-host-nation-in-the-kalshi-kxwcbesthost-26-usa |
| Mexico | 36¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-be-the-best-performing-host-nation-in-kalshi-kxwcbesthost-26-mex |
| Canada | 19¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-be-the-best-performing-host-nation-in-kalshi-kxwcbesthost-26-can |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 28 |
| 2026-05-14 | 39 |
| 2026-05-21 | 39 |
| 2026-05-28 | 34 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · Mexico +19pp 20→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Mexico −17pp 37→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · Canada +7pp 5→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Canada +6pp 12→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Canada −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcbesthost
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcbesthost

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.