# 11+ corners

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 46% across 20 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wccorners
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:49.009Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 31¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/12-corners-12-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun26nzlbel-12 |
| 8+ corners | 55¢ | +7pp | $963 | kalshi | /markets/8-corners-8-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27dzaaut-8 |
| 12+ corners | 26¢ | +1pp | $715 | kalshi | /markets/12-corners-12-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun26uruesp-12 |
| 11+ corners | 26¢ | — | $680 | kalshi | /markets/11-corners-11-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27crogha-11 |
| 9+ corners | 43¢ | +10pp | $490 | kalshi | /markets/9-corners-9-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27dzaaut-9 |
| 11+ corners | 20¢ | +6pp | $352 | kalshi | /markets/11-corners-11-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27dzaaut-11 |
| 9+ corners | 51¢ | +1pp | $275 | kalshi | /markets/9-corners-9-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun26cpvksa-9 |
| 10+ corners | 43¢ | +3pp | $275 | kalshi | /markets/10-corners-10-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27colpor-10 |
| 7+ corners | 76¢ | ±0 | $239 | kalshi | /markets/7-corners-7-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun26cpvksa-7 |
| 7+ corners | 73¢ | +17pp | $235 | kalshi | /markets/7-corners-7-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27jorarg-7 |
| 11+ corners | 31¢ | +4pp | $205 | kalshi | /markets/11-corners-11-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27colpor-11 |
| 8+ corners | 67¢ | +3pp | $155 | kalshi | /markets/8-corners-8-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27colpor-8 |
| 8+ corners | 63¢ | — | $149 | kalshi | /markets/8-corners-8-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27crogha-8 |
| 10+ corners | 38¢ | +4pp | $147 | kalshi | /markets/10-corners-10-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27jorarg-10 |
| 12+ corners | 20¢ | +3pp | $141 | kalshi | /markets/12-corners-12-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27colpor-12 |
| 8+ corners | 62¢ | +12pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/8-corners-8-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27jorarg-8 |
| 11+ corners | 25¢ | +4pp | $119 | kalshi | /markets/11-corners-11-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27jorarg-11 |
| 9+ corners | 50¢ | +8pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/9-corners-9-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun27jorarg-9 |
| 8+ corners | 71¢ | +2pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/8-corners-8-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun26uruesp-8 |
| 10+ corners | 48¢ | — | $40 | kalshi | /markets/10-corners-10-corners-kalshi-kxwccorners-26jun26uruesp-10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 41 |
| 2026-06-25 | 46 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · 7+ corners +17pp 57→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 8+ corners +12pp 50→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 9+ corners +10pp 35→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 9+ corners +8pp 41→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 8+ corners +7pp 48→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 47% probability that a specific event will produce 11 or more corners, based on aggregated market pricing. The current level reflects the midpoint between pessimism and optimism about the frequency of this occurrence. Key factors driving the probability include historical baseline rates for similar events and any recent changes in circumstances that would increase or decrease the likelihood of reaching the 11-corner threshold. The probability appears moderately calibrated given the related contracts showing 73% confidence in 7+ corners and 50% confidence in 9+ corners, suggesting markets see diminishing likelihood as the threshold rises. Resolution will depend on actual data collection when the event occurs, at which point the outcome becomes verifiable and contracts settle accordingly.

### Key factors

- Historical average corner frequency for comparable events determines the baseline expectation
- Current market shows 73% probability for 7+ corners versus 47% for 11+, indicating steep dropoff at higher thresholds
- The contract pricing structure (27¢ for 11+, 50¢ for 9+, 61¢ for 8+) reflects consistent probabilistic ordering
- Market liquidity is minimal ($0 trading volume), suggesting limited information flow and price discovery
- Actual outcome becomes deterministic at contract settlement when corner count is finalized

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wccorners
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wccorners

## License

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