# Will the fastest goal be scored in the 2nd minute or earlier across all 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup matches

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 1 contract — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcfastestgoal
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.486Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-27

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $883

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st minute | 27¢ | −5pp | $883 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fastest-goal-be-scored-in-the-1st-minute-kalshi-kxwcfastestgoal-26-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 2 |
| 2026-06-18 | 35 |
| 2026-06-25 | 27 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · 1st minute −5pp 32→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · 1st minute +4pp 35→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · 1st minute −4pp 40→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · 1st minute −4pp 36→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · 1st minute +3pp 39→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that a goal will be scored within the first two minutes across all 64 matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 6% probability reflects historical rarity of extremely early goals combined with modern defensive tactics and goalkeeper positioning in international tournament play. Early goals depend on tactical setup—teams employing aggressive high-pressing systems increase this likelihood, while cautious opening phases reduce it. The World Cup's format, with 64 matches starting at different times and involving diverse team strategies, creates multiple opportunities for an early goal, yet the data suggests such outcomes remain uncommon. Resolution occurs once the tournament concludes in late 2026. Key drivers include team composition changes from qualifying, weather conditions affecting early match tempo, and whether opening fixtures feature attacking-minded teams. Historical World Cup data and current team form leading into the tournament will significantly influence final odds.

### Key factors

- Historical frequency of goals in minutes 1-2 across previous World Cups and qualifier matches
- Distribution of attacking versus defensive team tactics among the 32 qualified nations entering the tournament
- Early match conditions including weather, pitch conditions, and referee interpretation of physical play in opening minutes
- Fixture scheduling and whether high-attacking-intent teams face each other in early matches
- Goalkeeper distribution and modern defensive positioning trends in international football circa 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcfastestgoal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcfastestgoal

## License

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