# Lionel Messi

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 4 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcfirstgoal
Updated: 2026-07-14T04:20:50.428Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-29

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $28K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Goalscorer: No Goal | 6¢ | +3pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/no-goal-first-goalscorer-no-goal-kalshi-kxwcfirstgoal-26jul15engarg-nogoal |
| First Goalscorer: Jude Bellingham | 10¢ | — | $8K | kalshi | /markets/jude-bellingham-first-goalscorer-jude-bellingham-kalshi-kxwcfirstgoal-26jul15engarg-engjbelli5 |
| First Goalscorer: Lionel Messi | 18¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/lionel-messi-first-goalscorer-lionel-messi-kalshi-kxwcfirstgoal-26jul15engarg-arglmessi10 |
| First Goalscorer: Harry Kane | 16¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/harry-kane-first-goalscorer-harry-kane-kalshi-kxwcfirstgoal-26jul15engarg-enghkane9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 11 |
| 2026-07-13 | 13 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-13 · First Goalscorer: No Goal +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · First Goalscorer: Lionel Messi +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 15% probability reflects the chance that Messi scores the first goal in a specific upcoming match. The current price sits between comparable odds for Harry Kane (18%) and well below Erling Haaland (13%), positioning Messi as a mid-tier contender. The primary factors influencing this level are Messi's recent playing time and form—whether he's currently in the squad and match fit—and the specific opponent's defensive profile. Recent trading volume of $2,458 suggests moderate interest. Resolution will occur once the designated match concludes and the first goalscorer is recorded. The probability may shift significantly closer to the match based on team lineup announcements, which typically occur 1-2 hours before kickoff and would clarify whether Messi starts or appears on the bench.

### Key factors

- Messi's recent appearances and minutes played in his current competition
- Whether Messi is confirmed in the starting lineup versus on the bench for the specific match
- The defending team's recent defensive record and vulnerability to first-goal scoring
- Messi's conversion rate on first-half shooting opportunities in recent matches
- Starting formation and tactical setup that determines Messi's positioning and shooting opportunities

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcfirstgoal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcfirstgoal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.