# Will no goal be scored

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 18 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcftts
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.723Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Goal | 18¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-no-goal-be-scored-no-goal-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27dzaaut-none |
| Argentina | 81¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-a-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27jorarg-arg |
| Colombia | 31¢ | +1pp | $905 | kalshi | /markets/will-colombia-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-co-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27colpor-col |
| No Goal | 4¢ | ±0 | $805 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-goal-be-scored-no-goal-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27coduzb-none |
| Cape Verde | 44¢ | −2pp | $764 | kalshi | /markets/will-cape-verde-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun26cpvksa-cpv |
| No Goal | 3¢ | +6pp | $672 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-goal-be-scored-no-goal-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27colpor-none |
| No Goal | 6¢ | ±0 | $667 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-goal-be-scored-no-goal-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun26uruesp-none |
| No Goal | 7¢ | +1pp | $570 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-goal-be-scored-no-goal-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun26cpvksa-none |
| Portugal | 54¢ | +1pp | $474 | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-po-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27colpor-por |
| No Goal | 12¢ | ±0 | $406 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-goal-be-scored-no-goal-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun26egyiri-none |
| England | 78¢ | +1pp | $332 | kalshi | /markets/will-england-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-eng-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27paneng-eng |
| No Goal | 3¢ | +1pp | $300 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-goal-be-scored-no-goal-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun26nzlbel-none |
| Uruguay | 23¢ | −1pp | $273 | kalshi | /markets/will-uruguay-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-uru-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun26uruesp-uru |
| Jordan | 12¢ | ±0 | $265 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-jord-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27jorarg-jor |
| Spain | 69¢ | −1pp | $256 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-spain-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun26uruesp-esp |
| No Goal | 8¢ | +1pp | $206 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-goal-be-scored-no-goal-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27crogha-none |
| New Zealand | 16¢ | −1pp | $87 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-zealand-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun26nzlbel-nzl |
| Croatia | 57¢ | ±0 | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-record-the-first-goal-of-the-game-cro-kalshi-kxwcftts-26jun27crogha-cro |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 26 |
| 2026-06-12 | 2 |
| 2026-06-19 | 51 |
| 2026-06-25 | 33 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Spain −12pp 61→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Spain +12pp 49→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · England +10pp 63→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Portugal +7pp 44→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Uruguay −7pp 23→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 40% probability indicates that odds-makers assess a roughly 2-in-5 chance that this match ends scoreless. The underlying contracts show strong market confidence that Argentina (67¢) or Norway (76¢) will score first if any goal occurs, suggesting these teams are viewed as offensive favorites. The probability is being driven by the relative attacking strength of the teams involved and baseline rates for 0-0 draws in competitive matches. Resolution depends on the actual match outcome, which will be determined when the game concludes and final statistics are recorded.

### Key factors

- Argentina and Norway combined represent 143¢ in first-goal probabilities, indicating market consensus that one of these two teams is most likely to score if goals are scored
- A 40% no-goal probability implies a 60% chance of at least one goal, consistent with typical scoring rates in international matches between these competitive levels
- Trading volume is concentrated in Argentina (67¢) and Norway (76¢) contracts, with minimal volume on lower-probability scorers, suggesting market focus on the likely goal-scoring team rather than the no-goal outcome
- The no-goal probability would increase if either team is significantly weakened by injuries or lineup changes before kickoff
- Final match outcome will be determined by actual play and will resolve this contract definitively when the game concludes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcftts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcftts

## License

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