# Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 20 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcfurthestadvancing
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.377Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-02

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 20¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-be-the-furthest-advancing-european-nati-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26eur-esp |
| Senegal | 17¢ | −1pp | $795 | kalshi | /markets/will-senegal-be-the-furthest-advancing-african-nat-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-sen |
| Korea Republic | 17¢ | +1pp | $749 | kalshi | /markets/will-korea-republic-be-the-furthest-advancing-asia-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26asoc-kor |
| Morocco | 27¢ | +2pp | $559 | kalshi | /markets/will-morocco-be-the-furthest-advancing-african-nat-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-mar |
| Japan | 34¢ | −3pp | $472 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-be-the-furthest-advancing-asianoceanic-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26asoc-jpn |
| Argentina | 35¢ | +19pp | $353 | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-be-the-furthest-advancing-south-ame-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26sa-arg |
| Ecuador | 5¢ | +1pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/will-ecuador-be-the-furthest-advancing-south-ameri-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26sa-ecu |
| Colombia | 12¢ | +3pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/will-colombia-be-the-furthest-advancing-south-amer-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26sa-col |
| Egypt | 12¢ | +2pp | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-egypt-be-the-furthest-advancing-african-natio-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-egy |
| Portugal | 10¢ | +1pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-be-the-furthest-advancing-european-n-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26eur-por |
| France | 20¢ | ±0 | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-be-the-furthest-advancing-european-nat-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26eur-fra |
| IR Iran | 11¢ | ±0 | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-ir-iran-be-the-furthest-advancing-asianoceani-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26asoc-iri |
| Ivory Coast | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ivory-coast-be-the-furthest-advancing-african-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-civ |
| Congo DR | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-congo-dr-be-the-furthest-advancing-african-na-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-cod |
| Cape Verde | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cape-verde-be-the-furthest-advancing-african-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-cpv |
| Algeria | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-algeria-be-the-furthest-advancing-african-nat-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-dza |
| Ghana | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ghana-be-the-furthest-advancing-african-natio-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-gha |
| South Africa | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-be-the-furthest-advancing-africa-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-rsa |
| Tunisia | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tunisia-be-the-furthest-advancing-african-nat-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26afr-tun |
| Australia | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-australia-be-the-furthest-advancing-asianocea-kalshi-kxwcfurthestadvancing-26asoc-aus |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 11 |
| 2026-05-21 | 13 |
| 2026-05-28 | 34 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Argentina +19pp 20→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Argentina −15pp 35→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Japan +10pp 23→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Egypt +5pp 3→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Senegal +4pp 13→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the odds that Ivory Coast advances further than any other African nation at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 19% assessment suggests Ivory Coast is competitive but not favored—Morocco is priced substantially higher at 40%, indicating market participants view Morocco's squad strength and recent tournament experience as advantages. Ivory Coast's position depends on group composition, injury status of key players, and performance against higher-seeded opponents. The tournament begins in June 2026, at which point group stage matchups and early results will quickly resolve much of the uncertainty around which African side performs best.

### Key factors

- Ivory Coast's group assignment and opponent quality, which will be determined at the official 2026 World Cup draw
- Comparative squad depth and form of competing African nations, particularly Morocco, Senegal, and Cameroon heading into the tournament
- Injury or availability status of Ivory Coast's key players during the June 2026 tournament window
- Historical performance data: Ivory Coast reached the Round of 16 in 2014 but has not advanced past that stage since; Morocco reached the semifinals in 2022
- Tournament bracket dynamics and whether Ivory Coast faces easier or harder paths to advancing further than rival African nations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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