# Scotland vs Morocco Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 19 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgame
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.760Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-10

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haiti | 9¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/brazil-vs-haiti-winner-haiti-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun19brahti-hti |
| Tie | 22¢ | −3pp | $863 | kalshi | /markets/usa-vs-paraguay-winner-tie-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun12usapar-tie |
| Brazil | 85¢ | ±0 | $667 | kalshi | /markets/brazil-vs-haiti-winner-brazil-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun19brahti-bra |
| Korea Republic | 25¢ | ±0 | $432 | kalshi | /markets/mexico-vs-korea-republic-winner-korea-republic-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun18mexkor-kor |
| Tie | 18¢ | −4pp | $354 | kalshi | /markets/haiti-vs-scotland-winner-tie-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun13htisco-tie |
| Tie | 3¢ | ±0 | $352 | kalshi | /markets/brazil-vs-haiti-winner-tie-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun19brahti-tie |
| Germany | 89¢ | +1pp | $349 | kalshi | /markets/germany-vs-curacao-winner-germany-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun14gercuw-ger |
| New Zealand | 14¢ | ±0 | $340 | kalshi | /markets/ir-iran-vs-new-zealand-winner-new-zealand-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun15irinzl-nzl |
| USA | 46¢ | +1pp | $320 | kalshi | /markets/usa-vs-paraguay-winner-usa-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun12usapar-usa |
| England | 53¢ | −2pp | $293 | kalshi | /markets/england-vs-croatia-winner-england-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun17engcro-eng |
| Tie | 4¢ | −2pp | $280 | kalshi | /markets/spain-vs-saudi-arabia-winner-tie-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun21espksa-tie |
| Spain | 82¢ | ±0 | $228 | kalshi | /markets/spain-vs-saudi-arabia-winner-spain-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun21espksa-esp |
| Argentina | 69¢ | ±0 | $201 | kalshi | /markets/argentina-vs-algeria-winner-argentina-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun16argdza-arg |
| South Africa | 12¢ | +2pp | $199 | kalshi | /markets/mexico-vs-south-africa-winner-south-africa-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun11mexrsa-rsa |
| England | 66¢ | +2pp | $175 | kalshi | /markets/england-vs-ghana-winner-england-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun23enggha-eng |
| Mexico | 65¢ | ±0 | $158 | kalshi | /markets/mexico-vs-south-africa-winner-mexico-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun11mexrsa-mex |
| Tie | 3¢ | −2pp | $157 | kalshi | /markets/spain-vs-cape-verde-winner-tie-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun15espcpv-tie |
| Croatia | 25¢ | ±0 | $101 | kalshi | /markets/croatia-vs-ghana-winner-croatia-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun27crogha-cro |
| Morocco | 16¢ | ±0 | $100 | kalshi | /markets/brazil-vs-morocco-winner-morocco-kalshi-kxwcgame-26jun13bramar-mar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 32 |
| 2026-04-25 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 43 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Korea Republic −10pp 31→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · New Zealand +6pp 17→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · South Africa −5pp 14→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Tie −4pp 17→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Tie −3pp 23→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 27% probability reflects the market's assessment that Scotland will win their direct matchup against Morocco in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The current pricing suggests Morocco enters as favorites, consistent with their higher ranking and recent tournament performances. The probability is anchored by contract activity across multiple venues, with related markets showing Morocco at 16-18 cents in broader group scenarios. The main drivers of this probability are the teams' relative strength, head-to-head history, and their performance trajectories leading into the tournament. The fixture itself will resolve all uncertainty around this specific matchup outcome once the game is played during the group stage in June 2026.

### Key factors

- Scotland's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record compared to Morocco's prior to the tournament
- Morocco's performance in recent international competitions versus Scotland's qualification campaign and form
- Historical head-to-head results between the two teams and tactical matchups
- Related market pricing showing Morocco favored in group scenarios (16-18 cents) versus Scotland (5 cents), indicating consistency in probability assessments
- The 27% probability implies roughly 73% implied probability for Morocco to win this specific fixture

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcgame

## License

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