# Duckens Nazon: 1+ goals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 18 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgoal
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.340Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-10

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $401K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 2+ | 19¢ | +4pp | $94K | kalshi | /markets/kylian-mbappe-2-goals-kylian-mbappe-2-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26norfra-frakmbapp10-2 |
| 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+ | 53¢ | +7pp | $85K | kalshi | /markets/kylian-mbappe-1-goals-kylian-mbappe-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26norfra-frakmbapp10-1 |
| 1+ goals: Erling Haaland: 1+ | 38¢ | +7pp | $76K | kalshi | /markets/erling-haaland-1-goals-erling-haaland-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26norfra-norehaala9-1 |
| 2+ goals: Erling Haaland: 2+ | 9¢ | ±0 | $59K | kalshi | /markets/erling-haaland-2-goals-erling-haaland-2-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26norfra-norehaala9-2 |
| 3+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 3+ | 3¢ | −1pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/kylian-mbappe-3-goals-kylian-mbappe-3-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26norfra-frakmbapp10-3 |
| 1+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 1+ | 35¢ | — | $15K | kalshi | /markets/lamine-yamal-1-goals-lamine-yamal-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26uruesp-esplyamal10-1 |
| 2+ goals: Lamine Yamal: 2+ | 9¢ | — | $10K | kalshi | /markets/lamine-yamal-2-goals-lamine-yamal-2-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26uruesp-esplyamal10-2 |
| 2+ goals: Mohamed Salah: 2+ | 3¢ | — | $7K | kalshi | /markets/mohamed-salah-2-goals-mohamed-salah-2-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26egyiri-egymsalah11-2 |
| 2+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 2+ | 5¢ | — | $5K | kalshi | /markets/ousmane-dembele-2-goals-ousmane-dembele-2-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26norfra-fraodembe10-2 |
| 1+ goals: Mohamed Salah: 1+ | 27¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/mohamed-salah-1-goals-mohamed-salah-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26egyiri-egymsalah11-1 |
| 1+ goals: Sadio Mane: 1+ | 36¢ | +4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/sadio-mane-1-goals-sadio-mane-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26senirq-sensmane10-1 |
| 1+ goals: Martin Odegaard: 1+ | 9¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/martin-odegaard-1-goals-martin-odegaard-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26norfra-normodega8-1 |
| 1+ goals: Ousmane Dembele: 1+ | 29¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/ousmane-dembele-1-goals-ousmane-dembele-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26norfra-fraodembe10-1 |
| 1+ goals: Mehdi Taremi: 1+ | 15¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/mehdi-taremi-1-goals-mehdi-taremi-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26egyiri-irimtarem99-1 |
| 1+ goals: Nicolas Jackson: 1+ | 40¢ | +8pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/nicolas-jackson-1-goals-nicolas-jackson-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26senirq-sennjacks11-1 |
| 1+ goals: Michael Olise: 1+ | 25¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/michael-olise-1-goals-michael-olise-1-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26norfra-framolise17-1 |
| 2+ goals: Sadio Mane: 2+ | 8¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/sadio-mane-2-goals-sadio-mane-2-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26senirq-sensmane10-2 |
| 3+ goals: Sadio Mane: 3+ | 3¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/sadio-mane-3-goals-sadio-mane-3-kalshi-kxwcgoal-26jun26senirq-sensmane10-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 20 |
| 2026-06-25 | 19 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · 1+ goals: Nicolas Jackson: 1+ +8pp 27→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 1+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 1+ +7pp 41→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 1+ goals: Erling Haaland: 1+ +7pp 31→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 2+ goals: Kylian Mbappe: 2+ +4pp 11→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · 1+ goals: Sadio Mane: 1+ +4pp 25→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 13% probability that Duckens Nazon scores at least one goal in an upcoming match. The low probability typically indicates either that Nazon is not expected to start, plays limited minutes, or faces defensive opponents, or that other attacking players on his team are favored to score instead. The contract resolves when the match concludes and official goal statistics are recorded. Key drivers of the probability would include Nazon's recent playing time, his position in the team's attacking rotation, the strength of the opposing defense, and overall team performance in recent fixtures.

### Key factors

- Nazon's average minutes played per match in recent appearances compared to other attacking options on the roster
- The defensive strength or recent goal concession rate of the opposing team
- Nazon's goal-scoring rate per 90 minutes over the last 5-10 competitive fixtures
- His current status in the team's starting lineup versus bench position
- The relative pricing of similar one-goal contracts for teammates (context: Vinicius Jr at 28%, Raphinha at 26%, Xhaka at 19%)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgoal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcgoal

## License

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