# Will Portugal finish bottom of Group K in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 18 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgroupbottom
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.411Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-06

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $24

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 5¢ | −1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-uruguay-finish-bottom-of-group-h-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26h-uru |
| South Africa | 52¢ | — | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-finish-bottom-of-group-a-in-the-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26a-rsa |
| Belgium | 3¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-belgium-finish-bottom-of-group-g-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26g-bel |
| Czechia | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-czechia-finish-bottom-of-group-a-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26a-cze |
| Korea Republic | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-korea-republic-finish-bottom-of-group-a-in-th-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26a-kor |
| Mexico | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-finish-bottom-of-group-a-in-the-2026-m-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26a-mex |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bosnia-and-herzegovina-finish-bottom-of-group-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26b-bih |
| Canada | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-finish-bottom-of-group-b-in-the-2026-m-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26b-can |
| Qatar | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-qatar-finish-bottom-of-group-b-in-the-2026-me-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26b-qat |
| Haiti | 90¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-haiti-finish-bottom-of-group-c-in-the-2026-me-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26c-hti |
| Scotland | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scotland-finish-bottom-of-group-c-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26c-sco |
| Australia | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-australia-finish-bottom-of-group-d-in-the-202-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26d-aus |
| Paraguay | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paraguay-finish-bottom-of-group-d-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26d-par |
| Turkiye | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-turkiye-finish-bottom-of-group-d-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26d-tur |
| USA | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-finish-bottom-of-group-d-in-the-2026-mens-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26d-usa |
| Curacao | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-curacao-finish-bottom-of-group-e-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26e-cuw |
| Japan | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-finish-bottom-of-group-f-in-the-2026-me-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26f-jpn |
| Sweden | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-finish-bottom-of-group-f-in-the-2026-m-kalshi-kxwcgroupbottom-26f-swe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 15 |
| 2026-05-28 | 22 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · Haiti +7pp 68→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Japan +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-28 · Sweden +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the chance that Portugal finishes last in Group K at the 2026 World Cup, currently priced at 17%. Portugal's group assignment includes France, Uruguay, and Ghana—a competitive field where Portugal's actual finishing position will depend on head-to-head performance and goal differential. The probability reflects Portugal's historical strength as a national team, recent tournament performance, and the relative quality of other Group K nations. Factors that would increase this probability include poor qualifying form, injury to key players, or underperformance in pre-tournament matches. Conversely, strong preparation and favorable match outcomes would decrease it. The uncertainty will largely resolve during Group K matches in summer 2026, with some adjustments likely occurring between now and then based on friendlies and any roster changes.

### Key factors

- Portugal's FIFA ranking relative to France, Uruguay, and Ghana; current rankings suggest Portugal is stronger than Ghana but comparable to or behind France and Uruguay
- Head-to-head records and recent competitive history between Portugal and each Group K opponent; historical patterns in knockout and group stage performance
- Pre-tournament injury status and squad depth; availability of key Portugal national team players in early 2026
- Group K match schedule and fixture sequencing; certain orderings create different elimination scenarios
- Market pricing on related contracts shows Belgium, Spain, and Argentina (stronger traditional powers) trading at 3-8 cents, providing comparative context for how markets value bottom-finishing risk for competitive teams

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgroupbottom
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcgroupbottom

## License

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