# Will Group H score the most goals in the Group Stage

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 10 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgroupgoals
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:51.817Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-03

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group A | 39¢ | +34pp | $837 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-a-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26fewest-a |
| Group L | 25¢ | +3pp | $656 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-l-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26fewest-l |
| Group F | 78¢ | +7pp | $456 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-f-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-sta-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26most-f |
| Group I | 15¢ | −1pp | $288 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-i-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-sta-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26most-i |
| Group D | 5¢ | ±0 | $212 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-d-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26fewest-d |
| Group E | 3¢ | +3pp | $207 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-e-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-sta-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26most-e |
| Group G | 3¢ | +1pp | $186 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-g-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26fewest-g |
| Group H | 7¢ | +1pp | $56 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-h-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26fewest-h |
| Group F | 12¢ | +24pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-f-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26fewest-f |
| Group E | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-group-e-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgroupgoals-26fewest-e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 6 |
| 2026-06-11 | 8 |
| 2026-06-18 | 14 |
| 2026-06-25 | 11 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Group A +34pp 7→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Group F +34pp 33→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Group F +24pp 16→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Group F +22pp 11→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Group E −17pp 22→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Group H will accumulate the most goals across all eight groups during the tournament's group stage. At 6% probability, Group H is considered a significant underdog for this outcome. The low probability reflects that multiple other groups are historically more likely to generate high-scoring matches. The main factors influencing this estimate are the attacking quality of teams assigned to Group H, their defensive vulnerabilities, and the scheduling of their matches. The group stage concludes when all teams complete their final matches, at which point the total goal count for each group becomes fixed and the market resolves. Movement in this probability would depend on team lineups being confirmed and expert assessments of each group's competitive balance and expected goal production.

### Key factors

- Team composition of Group H relative to other groups' attacking capabilities and defensive weaknesses
- Historical scoring patterns in similar tournament structures and whether this edition follows typical distributions
- Strength of schedule considerations—matchday sequencing and whether trailing teams need goals in later matches
- Comparison to other groups' probabilities, particularly Group E (11%) which currently has the highest market probability
- Tournament-specific variables like weather conditions, venue factors, or rule changes affecting goal-scoring pace

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgroupgoals
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcgroupgoals

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.