# Will Paraguay qualify from World Cup Group D

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 67% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgroupqual
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.253Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-11

## Headline

- Probability: 67% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 96¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-qualify-from-world-cup-group-j-arge-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26j-arg |
| Haiti | 10¢ | −2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-haiti-qualify-from-world-cup-group-c-haiti-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26c-hti |
| Japan | 79¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-qualify-from-world-cup-group-f-japan-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26f-jpn |
| Ivory Coast | 78¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ivory-coast-qualify-from-world-cup-group-e-iv-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26e-civ |
| Spain | 97¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-qualify-from-world-cup-group-h-spain-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26h-esp |
| Saudi Arabia | 34¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-saudi-arabia-qualify-from-world-cup-group-h-s-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26h-ksa |
| Scotland | 69¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-scotland-qualify-from-world-cup-group-c-scotl-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26c-sco |
| Germany | 97¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-qualify-from-world-cup-group-e-german-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26e-ger |
| Senegal | 67¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-senegal-qualify-from-world-cup-group-i-senega-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26i-sen |
| Mexico | 91¢ | +1pp | $967 | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-qualify-from-world-cup-group-a-mexico-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26a-mex |
| USA | 82¢ | −1pp | $808 | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-qualify-from-world-cup-group-d-usa-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26d-usa |
| Paraguay | 63¢ | +1pp | $803 | kalshi | /markets/will-paraguay-qualify-from-world-cup-group-d-parag-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26d-par |
| New Zealand | 32¢ | ±0 | $803 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-zealand-qualify-from-world-cup-group-g-ne-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26g-nzl |
| Turkiye | 80¢ | ±0 | $681 | kalshi | /markets/will-turkiye-qualify-from-world-cup-group-d-turkiy-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26d-tur |
| Panama | 31¢ | ±0 | $602 | kalshi | /markets/will-panama-qualify-from-world-cup-group-l-panama-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26l-pan |
| Canada | 86¢ | +5pp | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-qualify-from-world-cup-group-b-canada-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26b-can |
| England | 96¢ | ±0 | $577 | kalshi | /markets/will-england-qualify-from-world-cup-group-l-englan-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26l-eng |
| Sweden | 62¢ | +3pp | $310 | kalshi | /markets/will-sweden-qualify-from-world-cup-group-f-sweden-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26f-swe |
| Qatar | 22¢ | ±0 | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-qatar-qualify-from-world-cup-group-b-qatar-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26b-qat |
| Korea Republic | 71¢ | +1pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-korea-republic-qualify-from-world-cup-group-a-kalshi-kxwcgroupqual-26a-kor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 72 |
| 2026-05-25 | 56 |
| 2026-06-01 | 58 |
| 2026-06-08 | 76 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Ivory Coast −16pp 76→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Ivory Coast +11pp 60→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Japan −6pp 74→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Japan +6pp 68→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Japan +5pp 74→79¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Paraguay will finish in the top two of their World Cup group and advance to the knockout stage. The 57% assessment suggests Paraguay is viewed as a competitive team with meaningful advancement chances, but facing genuine uncertainty. Key drivers of this probability include Paraguay's recent international form, the strength of competing teams in Group D, and their historical performance in World Cup qualification and tournament play. The upcoming matches within Group D will be the primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty, as actual results will determine advancement directly. Paraguay's ability to secure points early and their performance against the group favorites will likely shift probabilities substantially.

### Key factors

- Paraguay's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record relative to other Group D nations determines baseline qualification likelihood
- Head-to-head records and historical performance of Group D opponents provide context for relative team strength
- Injuries to key players or coaching changes before tournament play could materially affect Paraguay's capabilities
- Paraguay's goal differential and points accumulated in their opening Group D matches will directly indicate advancement probability
- Strength of schedule within Group D and whether Paraguay faces group favorites early or late affects their advancement odds

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgroupqual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcgroupqual

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.