# Will Senegal finish first in World Cup Group I

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 13 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgroupwin
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.339Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-11

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $233K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 46¢ | +2pp | $54K | kalshi | /markets/will-colombia-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-k-co-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26k-col |
| Cape Verde | 3¢ | ±0 | $40K | kalshi | /markets/will-cape-verde-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-h-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26h-cpv |
| France | 79¢ | +2pp | $27K | kalshi | /markets/will-france-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-i-fran-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26i-fra |
| Croatia | 7¢ | +2pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-l-cro-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26l-cro |
| Portugal | 52¢ | ±0 | $17K | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-k-po-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26k-por |
| Ghana | 4¢ | −2pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-ghana-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-l-ghana-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26l-gha |
| England | 86¢ | +1pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-england-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-l-eng-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26l-eng |
| Belgium | 28¢ | +2pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-belgium-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-g-bel-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26g-bel |
| Egypt | 59¢ | −1pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-egypt-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-g-egypt-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26g-egy |
| IR Iran | 9¢ | +1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-ir-iran-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-g-ir-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26g-iri |
| Spain | 86¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-h-spain-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26h-esp |
| Norway | 19¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-norway-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-i-norw-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26i-nor |
| Uruguay | 9¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-uruguay-finish-first-in-world-cup-group-h-uru-kalshi-kxwcgroupwin-26h-uru |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 43 |
| 2026-06-12 | 48 |
| 2026-06-19 | 45 |
| 2026-06-26 | 50 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Belgium −19pp 62→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Egypt +15pp 35→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Belgium −14pp 38→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Egypt +12pp 50→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Spain +12pp 72→84¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects current market expectations that Senegal will top World Cup Group I ahead of other competitors. The 28% assessment suggests meaningful but not favored odds, likely reflecting Senegal's regional strength in African football while accounting for potential group opponents' capabilities. Key drivers of this probability are Senegal's recent tournament performance, the specific composition of Group I opponents, and how analysts weigh head-to-head matchups and home-field considerations. The probability will shift based on final group assignments and any roster changes as teams announce their squads closer to tournament start. The definitive resolution occurs when the group stage concludes and final standings are determined.

### Key factors

- Senegal's FIFA ranking relative to other potential Group I competitors at time of group draw
- Historical head-to-head records between Senegal and confirmed Group I opponents in recent competitions
- Injury status and squad depth of key Senegal players during the tournament window
- Whether Group I includes traditionally strong football nations or lower-ranked teams based on seeding
- Home advantage effects if matches are played in specific regional locations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgroupwin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcgroupwin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.