# Will New Zealand score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgsgoals
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.542Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curacao | 15¢ | −6pp | $680 | kalshi | /markets/will-curacao-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-cuw |
| Uzbekistan | 17¢ | — | $396 | kalshi | /markets/will-uzbekistan-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-grou-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-uzb |
| Germany | 7¢ | ±0 | $278 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-sta-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-ger |
| New Zealand | 15¢ | — | $142 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-zealand-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-gro-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-nzl |
| Canada | 11¢ | — | $128 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-st-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-can |
| Portugal | 17¢ | — | $111 | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-st-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-por |
| Spain | 12¢ | +6pp | $108 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-stage-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-esp |
| France | 10¢ | — | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-stag-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-fra |
| Colombia | 12¢ | — | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-colombia-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-st-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-col |
| IR Iran | 12¢ | — | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-ir-iran-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-iri |
| Haiti | 19¢ | −1pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-haiti-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-sta-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-hti |
| Jordan | 17¢ | — | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-st-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-jor |
| England | 16¢ | — | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-england-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-sta-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-eng |
| Cape Verde | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cape-verde-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-grou-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-cpv |
| Brazil | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-stag-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-bra |
| Netherlands | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-netherlands-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-ned |
| Belgium | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-belgium-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-sta-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-bel |
| Argentina | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-score-the-most-goals-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26most-arg |
| Qatar | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-qatar-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-sta-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-qat |
| Argentina | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-score-the-fewest-goals-in-the-group-kalshi-kxwcgsgoals-26least-arg |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 2 |
| 2026-06-05 | 9 |
| 2026-06-06 | 10 |
| 2026-06-07 | 12 |
| 2026-06-08 | 19 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Haiti +18pp 2→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Curacao −6pp 21→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Spain +6pp 6→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether New Zealand will score fewer goals than any other team in their World Cup group during the tournament's opening stage. At 13%, the market suggests a low but meaningful probability. New Zealand's offensive capability relative to their group opponents, combined with historical goal-scoring patterns, drives the current odds. The probability will clarify significantly once group assignments are finalized and teams begin their matches in mid-June 2026. Key drivers include New Zealand's squad strength and recent attacking performance compared to group rivals, and whether they face particularly strong defensive opponents that could limit scoring opportunities.

### Key factors

- New Zealand's group composition once revealed—playing stronger offensive teams increases the likelihood of fewest goals
- Historical World Cup goal-scoring data for New Zealand versus typical group-stage opponents and tournament averages
- Comparative offensive firepower and recent goal-scoring records of teams in New Zealand's assigned group
- Injury status and availability of New Zealand's key attacking players approaching the tournament
- Group stage schedules and opponent quality—fixtures against stronger teams may suppress New Zealand's goal total relative to weaker group members

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgsgoals
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcgsgoals

## License

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