# Will Argentina win all 3 of their matches in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 6 contracts — refreshed 37 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgsundefeated
Updated: 2026-06-25T22:20:51.007Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-05

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $64K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 55¢ | ±0 | $28K | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-win-all-3-of-their-matches-in-the-group-s-kalshi-kxwcgsundefeated-26-usa |
| Germany | 29¢ | +9pp | $25K | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-win-all-3-of-their-matches-in-the-gro-kalshi-kxwcgsundefeated-26-ger |
| Argentina | 85¢ | +7pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-win-all-3-of-their-matches-in-the-g-kalshi-kxwcgsundefeated-26-arg |
| France | 65¢ | +5pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-france-win-all-3-of-their-matches-in-the-grou-kalshi-kxwcgsundefeated-26-fra |
| Norway | 16¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-norway-win-all-3-of-their-matches-in-the-grou-kalshi-kxwcgsundefeated-26-nor |
| Colombia | 21¢ | +10pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-colombia-win-all-3-of-their-matches-in-the-gr-kalshi-kxwcgsundefeated-26-col |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 6 |
| 2026-06-11 | 14 |
| 2026-06-18 | 28 |
| 2026-06-25 | 49 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Germany +21pp 33→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Argentina +20pp 63→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · USA +18pp 32→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Germany −17pp 36→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · France −16pp 43→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance Argentina wins all three of their group-stage matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently estimated at 20% by contract traders. Argentina's 20% odds sit between strong favorites like Belgium (32%) and weaker teams, suggesting traders view them as competitive but unlikely to sweep their group without a loss. The main drivers of this probability are Argentina's actual squad strength relative to their group opponents and the inherent difficulty of going undefeated in any three-match tournament round. Argentina's group assignment and the quality of teams they face will be the key determining factors—a group with lower-ranked opponents increases their chances, while placement alongside stronger teams reduces them. The 2026 World Cup group stage begins in June, which will resolve this uncertainty once matches are played.

### Key factors

- Argentina's opponent quality in their assigned group, as facing lower-ranked teams significantly increases undefeated probability
- Argentina's current roster depth and injury status closer to June 2026, particularly among key players
- Historical performance data showing what percentage of strong national teams win all three group matches
- Comparative odds across similar nations show Belgium at 32% and Mexico at 16%, suggesting market perception of Argentina's competitiveness
- Argentina's qualification record and recent tournament performance as indicators of their consistency and form

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcgsundefeated
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcgsundefeated

## License

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