# Will there be at least 1 hattrick recorded during the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

> 3+ hattricks leads at 77%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wchattrick
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.760Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-27

## Headline

- Leader: 3+ hattricks at 77%
- Runner-up: 5+ hattricks at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3+ hattricks | 77¢ | −2pp | $74 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-at-least-3-hattricks-recorded-during-kalshi-kxwchattrick-26-3 |
| 5+ hattricks | 24¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-at-least-5-hattricks-recorded-during-kalshi-kxwchattrick-26-5 |
| 4+ hattricks | 21¢ | −8pp | $116 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-at-least-4-hattricks-recorded-during-kalshi-kxwchattrick-26-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 3+ hattricks | 5+ hattricks | 4+ hattricks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | — | — | 26 |
| 2026-06-04 | 38 | 5 | 35 |
| 2026-06-12 | 45 | 22 | 32 |
| 2026-06-19 | 69 | 26 | 60 |
| 2026-06-25 | 63 | 16 | 27 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · 4+ hattricks +28pp 32→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · 3+ hattricks −27pp 90→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · 3+ hattricks +20pp 69→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · 4+ hattricks −13pp 60→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · 5+ hattricks +11pp 15→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing at 96% the likelihood that at least two players will each score three goals in a single match during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. This reflects the contract structure where 2+ hattricks is the leading outcome, with declining probabilities for higher thresholds (72% for 3+, 67% for 4+, 32% for 5+). The elevated probability depends on squad depth, offensive tactics, and opponent quality varying across tournament matches. The tournament runs from mid-June through mid-July 2026, with group stages and knockout rounds determining matchup quality and player opportunity. Resolution occurs through the tournament's completion, making team composition, injuries to star forwards, and defensive strategy key variables that could shift the probability before and during play.

### Key factors

- Historical hattrick frequency in World Cup tournaments (2014: 2 total, 2018: 1 total, 2022: 1 total) suggests 2+ is statistically rare but plausible over 64 matches
- Participation of high-volume shooters and dominant attacking teams in 2026 will determine whether conditions exist for multiple hattricks across different matches
- Defensive quality and goalkeeper performance in group stages and knockout rounds directly affects scoring thresholds individual players can reach
- Early tournament results and group-stage blowouts (common sources of hattricks) will refine expectations before knockout stage begins
- Squad strength and forward depth across participating nations determines whether multiple players have opportunities to reach three-goal benchmarks in single matches

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wchattrick
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wchattrick

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.