# Will Australia or New Zealand be announced as hosts for the 2038 Men's FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 11 contracts — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wchost
Updated: 2026-07-12T23:20:49.563Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2034-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $436

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 25¢ | +5pp | $266 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-be-announced-as-a-host-for-the-2038-men-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-chn |
| USA | 30¢ | +20pp | $161 | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-be-announced-as-a-host-for-the-2038-mens-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-usa |
| Panama or Costa Rica | 3¢ | −2pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-panama-or-costa-rica-be-announced-as-hosts-fo-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-paco |
| Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-uruguay-chile-or-paraguay-be-announ-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-aucp |
| Australia or New Zealand | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-australia-or-new-zealand-be-announced-as-host-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-aune |
| Brazil, Colombia or Peru | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-colombia-or-peru-be-announced-as-hosts-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-bcp |
| Cambodia | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cambodia-be-announced-as-a-host-for-the-2038-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-cam |
| Egypt | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-egypt-be-announced-as-a-host-for-the-2038-men-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-egy |
| France, Belgium or the Netherlands | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-belgium-or-the-netherlands-be-announce-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-fbn |
| Germany | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-be-announced-as-a-host-for-the-2038-m-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-ger |
| Greece or Turkey | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-greece-or-turkey-be-announced-as-hosts-for-th-kalshi-kxwchost-2038-grtu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | 14 |
| 2026-06-28 | 13 |
| 2026-07-05 | 11 |
| 2026-07-11 | 15 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-06 · USA +20pp 16→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · China +5pp 21→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · France, Belgium or the Netherlands +4pp 9→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-06 · Argentina, Uruguay, Chile or Paraguay +3pp 17→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that either Australia or New Zealand will be formally announced as hosts for the 2038 FIFA Men's World Cup. The 8% estimate reflects that while both nations have hosted major tournaments before and possess adequate infrastructure, the competition for 2038 hosting rights remains open among several strong candidates globally. Key factors influencing this probability include FIFA's selection timeline and criteria, the countries' recent track record hosting comparable events, infrastructure readiness compared to rival bidders, and political-economic capacity to deliver an event of this scale. FIFA typically announces World Cup hosts 10-12 years in advance, meaning the 2038 decision is likely to occur in 2026-2027, creating an upcoming period of heightened clarity as formal bids are submitted and evaluated.

### Key factors

- FIFA's official 2038 World Cup host announcement is expected in late 2026 or 2027; this timeline is the primary near-term catalyst that will substantially reduce uncertainty
- Australia and New Zealand must formally submit competitive bids against other candidate nations; bid quality, financial guarantees, and stadium specifications directly affect selection odds
- Historical precedent shows UEFA nations (Europe) and CONMEBOL nations (South America) have hosted more frequently than AFC nations (Asia-Pacific), creating structural headwinds for Australia/New Zealand relative to European or South American bidders
- Infrastructure capacity: both nations have hosted major events (2015 Rugby World Cup in NZ, 2019 Women's World Cup in France then other events), but must demonstrate simultaneous hosting capability for 48+ teams at 12+ stadiums
- Current contract pricing similarity across disparate regional groups (8% for South America, 8% for Australia/NZ, 5% for Western Europe) suggests low confidence in any single bid rather than strong differentiation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wchost
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wchost

## License

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