# Will Get-in price of the 2026 World Cup Final on TicketData be above $9000 on 3:00PM ET July 18th, 2026

> Above $5000 leads at 97%, runner-up 96% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcprice
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:50.677Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-18

## Headline

- Leader: Above $5000 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above $2000 at 96%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $5000 | 97¢ | +1pp | $564 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-5000 |
| Above $2000 | 96¢ | ±0 | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi2-2000 |
| Above $2250 | 94¢ | +4pp | $56 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi2-2250 |
| Above $6000 | 93¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-6000 |
| Above $2250 | 93¢ | +1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1-2250 |
| Above $6500 | 91¢ | −1pp | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-6500 |
| Above $2500 | 87¢ | +7pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi2-2500 |
| Above $3250 | 84¢ | +9pp | $66 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1-3250 |
| Above $2500 | 83¢ | +3pp | $77 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1-2500 |
| Above $7000 | 83¢ | +1pp | $74 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-7000 |
| Above $2750 | 82¢ | −2pp | $476 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi2-2750 |
| Above $3000 | 82¢ | +3pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1-3000 |
| Above $8500 | 64¢ | −1pp | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-8500 |
| Above $9000 | 59¢ | −1pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-9000 |
| Above $4000 | 53¢ | −2pp | $65 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1-4000 |
| Above $10500 | 44¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-10500 |
| Above $11000 | 40¢ | −6pp | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-11000 |
| Above $11500 | 38¢ | ±0 | $62 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-11500 |
| Above $12000 | 28¢ | −1pp | $261 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-2026-world-cup-final-on-t-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcfinal-12000 |
| Above $4500 | 26¢ | −13pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-get-in-price-of-the-semi-final-world-cup-matc-kalshi-kxwcprice-26julwcsemi1-4500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $5000 | Above $2000 | Above $2250 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 80 | 76 | 76 |
| 2026-06-12 | 88 | 60 | 59 |
| 2026-06-18 | 96 | 56 | 67 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 93 | 67 |
| 2026-06-23 | 97 | — | 96 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 93 | 86 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Above $4000 +38pp 27→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above $2000 +37pp 56→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above $9000 −34pp 58→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above $2500 +30pp 61→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above $2250 +27pp 61→88¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market assesses whether World Cup Final tickets will trade at a get-in price above $9,000 on TicketData at 3:00 PM ET on July 18th, 2026. The 29-cent contract price reflects skepticism that prices will reach this level, suggesting market participants expect either moderately lower secondary-market prices or sufficient ticket supply to prevent extreme scarcity premiums. Final ticket prices depend on team identity, demand from the two finalist nations, stadium capacity constraints, and overall secondary-market dynamics closer to the event. The main driver is which teams qualify; matches involving traditional powerhouses with large diaspora populations typically command higher resale premiums. Resolution occurs on July 18th when actual TicketData get-in prices can be verified, making this a pure data-dependent event with limited predictability until the semi-finals conclude on July 13-15.

### Key factors

- Get-in price (cheapest available ticket) on TicketData will be observed and verified at exactly 3:00 PM ET on July 18th, 2026—no discretion in measurement
- Finalist team identities, confirmed by semi-final results on July 13-15, will substantially influence secondary-market demand and pricing power
- Stadium capacity and ticket supply allocation (number of seats released to secondary markets) constrains the price floor independent of demand
- Historical World Cup final secondary-market data shows get-in prices ranging widely based on host nation, team proximity, and perceived demand
- Current market prices on related contracts (get-in above $6,000 at 40 cents) suggest participants expect prices in the $5,000-$8,000 range more likely than above $9,000

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcprice
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcprice

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.