# Will Romania qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 67% across 20 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcqual
Updated: 2026-07-27T07:20:49.021Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2031-01-15

## Headline

- Probability: 67% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama | 56¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-panama-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-c-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-pan |
| Slovakia | 41¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-slovakia-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-svk |
| Albania | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-albania-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-alb |
| Australia | 89¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-australia-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-worl-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-aus |
| Austria | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-austria-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-aut |
| Belgium | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-belgium-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-bel |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bosnia-and-herzegovina-qualify-for-the-2030-m-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-bih |
| Bolivia | 61¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bolivia-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-bol |
| Brazil | 93¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-c-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-bra |
| Burkina Faso | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-burkina-faso-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-w-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-bur |
| Canada | 73¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-canada-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-c-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-can |
| Chile | 68¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chile-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-cu-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-chi |
| Ivory Coast | 71¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ivory-coast-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-wo-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-civ |
| Cameroon | 71¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameroon-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-cmr |
| Congo DR | 71¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-congo-dr-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-cod |
| Colombia | 92¢ | −56pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-colombia-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-col |
| Cape Verde | 60¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cape-verde-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-wor-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-cpv |
| Costa Rica | 71¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-costa-rica-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-wor-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-cri |
| Croatia | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-cro |
| Curacao | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-curacao-qualify-for-the-2030-mens-fifa-world-kalshi-kxwcqual-30-cuw |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | 65 |
| 2026-07-26 | 65 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-22 · Colombia −56pp 92→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Australia −36pp 88→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Australia +36pp 52→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Croatia −35pp 85→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Croatia +35pp 50→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the chance Romania qualifies for the 2030 FIFA World Cup, currently valued at 17% based on market contracts. Romania must finish in the top two of their UEFA qualification group or win a playoff to reach the tournament. The market's assessment reflects Romania's moderate competitive level—ranked 46th globally as of 2026—against traditionally stronger European competitors. Qualification odds depend heavily on group composition and remaining matches through late 2025, when final qualifying rounds conclude. The probability could shift substantially based on Romania's performance in qualifying fixtures and potential strength of opponents they draw in their qualification group.

### Key factors

- Romania's current FIFA ranking (46th) and recent tournament history—last World Cup appearance was 1998, with mixed recent qualification campaigns
- Group draw strength in UEFA qualifying—Romania's odds vary significantly depending on which other teams are placed in their qualification group
- Head-to-head record and performance trends in 2024-2025 qualifying matches, which serve as direct indicators of competitive standing
- Comparison to similarly-ranked teams: Czechia trades at 55¢, Turkey at 20¢, and Albania at 21¢, suggesting market consensus on Romania's relative position
- Remaining qualifying match schedule and results through the 2025 qualification period, which will provide concrete data on team form and point totals

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcqual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcqual

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.