# Will Algeria qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 19 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcround
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.875Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-03

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $87K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 12¢ | +1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-semifinals-kalshi-kxwcround-26semi-mex |
| USA | 9¢ | −1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-semifinals-usa-kalshi-kxwcround-26semi-usa |
| Colombia | 5¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-colombia-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-final-col-kalshi-kxwcround-26final-col |
| Portugal | 16¢ | +1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-final-por-kalshi-kxwcround-26final-por |
| England | 34¢ | +2pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-england-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-semifinals-kalshi-kxwcround-26semi-eng |
| Morocco | 5¢ | +1pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-morocco-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-final-moro-kalshi-kxwcround-26final-mar |
| Ivory Coast | 30¢ | +3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-ivory-coast-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-round-kalshi-kxwcround-26ro16-civ |
| Spain | 45¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-semifinals-s-kalshi-kxwcround-26semi-esp |
| Croatia | 3¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-final-croa-kalshi-kxwcround-26final-cro |
| USA | 4¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-final-usa-kalshi-kxwcround-26final-usa |
| Mexico | 25¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-quarterfina-kalshi-kxwcround-26quar-mex |
| Belgium | 36¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-belgium-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-quarterfin-kalshi-kxwcround-26quar-bel |
| Argentina | 52¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-quarterf-kalshi-kxwcround-26quar-arg |
| Spain | 28¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-final-spain-kalshi-kxwcround-26final-esp |
| France | 41¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-france-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-semifinals-kalshi-kxwcround-26semi-fra |
| Japan | 20¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-quarterfinal-kalshi-kxwcround-26quar-jpn |
| Argentina | 18¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-final-ar-kalshi-kxwcround-26final-arg |
| Brazil | 28¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-semifinals-kalshi-kxwcround-26semi-bra |
| Haiti | 3¢ | ±0 | $218 | kalshi | /markets/will-haiti-qualify-for-fifa-world-cup-round-of-16-kalshi-kxwcround-26ro16-hti |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 24 |
| 2026-05-25 | 26 |
| 2026-06-01 | 27 |
| 2026-06-08 | 22 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Belgium −7pp 36→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Spain −6pp 48→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · England −4pp 36→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Ivory Coast +3pp 27→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Mexico +3pp 21→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 18% probability indicates traders assess an 82% chance Algeria does not advance past the group stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Algeria's qualification odds reflect their historical performance as occasional tournament participants rather than consistent advancing teams, combined with the strength of their likely group opponents. The probability would move primarily based on Algeria's recent competitive results against top nations, their current squad composition and key player availability, and the specific draw outcome determining their group assignment. The critical catalyst is the World Cup group stage draw, which will determine whether Algeria faces elite teams or more beatable opponents. Following that, their actual group-stage performance—particularly results in opening matches—would significantly shift these odds as markets react to live competitive data.

### Key factors

- Algeria's historical knockout stage appearance rate: qualified for Round of 16 only once since 1986 (2014), suggesting structural competitive disadvantage
- Group draw composition will substantially impact advancement probability; facing multiple top-ranked nations significantly lowers qualification chances compared to a weaker group
- Current FIFA ranking and recent qualification campaign performance relative to likely group competitors (will vary based on final draw)
- Key player availability and squad depth for 2026, particularly injuries or roster changes affecting attacking capability
- Comparative trading volumes and odds across other nations' Round of 16 probabilities indicate market view of Algeria relative to similar-strength teams

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcround
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcround

## License

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