# Bruno Guimaraes: score or assist

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 20 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcsoa
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.242Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-10

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $22K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| score or assist?: Kylian Mbappe | 59¢ | +9pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/kylian-mbappe-score-or-assist-kylian-mbappe-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26norfra-frakmbapp10 |
| score or assist?: Erling Haaland | 43¢ | +10pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/erling-haaland-score-or-assist-erling-haaland-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26norfra-norehaala9 |
| score or assist?: Lamine Yamal | 51¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/lamine-yamal-score-or-assist-lamine-yamal-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26uruesp-esplyamal10 |
| score or assist?: Martin Odegaard | 4¢ | +18pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/martin-odegaard-score-or-assist-martin-odegaard-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26norfra-normodega8 |
| score or assist?: Michael Olise | 46¢ | +1pp | $895 | kalshi | /markets/michael-olise-score-or-assist-michael-olise-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26norfra-framolise17 |
| score or assist?: Mohamed Salah | 40¢ | — | $789 | kalshi | /markets/mohamed-salah-score-or-assist-mohamed-salah-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26egyiri-egymsalah11 |
| score or assist?: Ousmane Dembele | 43¢ | — | $545 | kalshi | /markets/ousmane-dembele-score-or-assist-ousmane-dembele-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26norfra-fraodembe10 |
| score or assist?: Jeremy Doku | 53¢ | — | $244 | kalshi | /markets/jeremy-doku-score-or-assist-jeremy-doku-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26nzlbel-beljdoku11 |
| score or assist?: Ismaila Sarr | 40¢ | — | $236 | kalshi | /markets/ismaila-sarr-score-or-assist-ismaila-sarr-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26senirq-senisarr7 |
| score or assist?: Chris Wood | 8¢ | — | $235 | kalshi | /markets/chris-wood-score-or-assist-chris-wood-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26nzlbel-nzlcwood11 |
| score or assist?: Sadio Mane | 44¢ | −1pp | $154 | kalshi | /markets/sadio-mane-score-or-assist-sadio-mane-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26senirq-sensmane10 |
| score or assist?: Pedri | 13¢ | — | $151 | kalshi | /markets/pedri-score-or-assist-pedri-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26uruesp-esppedr8 |
| score or assist?: Antonio Nusa | 6¢ | ±0 | $127 | kalshi | /markets/antonio-nusa-score-or-assist-antonio-nusa-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26norfra-noranusa7 |
| score or assist?: Omar Marmoush | 26¢ | — | $100 | kalshi | /markets/omar-marmoush-score-or-assist-omar-marmoush-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26egyiri-egyomarmo7 |
| score or assist?: Aymen Hussein | 17¢ | +13pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/aymen-hussein-score-or-assist-aymen-hussein-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26senirq-irqahusse18 |
| score or assist?: Kevin De Bruyne | 58¢ | — | $57 | kalshi | /markets/kevin-de-bruyne-score-or-assist-kevin-de-bruyne-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26nzlbel-belkdebr11 |
| score or assist?: Charles De Ketelaere | 38¢ | — | $30 | kalshi | /markets/charles-de-ketelaere-score-or-assist-charles-de-ke-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26nzlbel-belcdeke17 |
| score or assist?: Federico Valverde | 7¢ | — | $25 | kalshi | /markets/federico-valverde-score-or-assist-federico-valverd-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26uruesp-urufvalve8 |
| score or assist?: Dailon Livramento | 8¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/dailon-livramento-score-or-assist-dailon-livrament-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26cpvksa-cpvdlivra14 |
| score or assist?: Nicolas Jackson | 50¢ | — | $9 | kalshi | /markets/nicolas-jackson-score-or-assist-nicolas-jackson-kalshi-kxwcsoa-26jun26senirq-sennjacks11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 27 |
| 2026-06-25 | 23 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · score or assist?: Martin Odegaard +18pp 3→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · score or assist?: Aymen Hussein +13pp 4→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · score or assist?: Erling Haaland +10pp 24→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · score or assist?: Kylian Mbappe +9pp 41→50¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Bruno Guimaraes will score or assist in an upcoming match. The 25% price is notably lower than several other players in the comparison set, particularly lower than Dan Ndoye (43%) and significantly lower than Breel Embolo (55%). Guimaraes' probability appears to reflect his current form, playing position, and recent involvement in offensive actions. Key factors include his baseline contribution rate in previous matches, whether he's playing in a favorable matchup, and team tactical setup for the specific fixture. The resolution will depend entirely on whether he records either a goal or an assist during the match itself. Market prices tend to adjust based on team news, lineup confirmations, and opponent defense strength as the match approaches.

### Key factors

- Bruno Guimaraes' recent goal and assist frequency in his last 5-10 matches
- His typical role and offensive involvement in his team's formation and tactical system
- The defensive quality and recent form of the opposing team
- Whether Guimaraes is confirmed to start or may be used as a substitute
- Historical head-to-head involvement rates when playing against this specific opponent

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcsoa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcsoa

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.