# Mexico wins by over 1.5 goals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 20 contracts — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcspread
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.624Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $269K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina wins by more than 2.5 goals | 38¢ | +1pp | $46K | kalshi | /markets/argentina-wins-by-more-than-25-goals-argentina-win-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun27jorarg-arg3 |
| France wins by more than 1.5 goals | 35¢ | +1pp | $44K | kalshi | /markets/france-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-france-wins-by-m-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26norfra-fra2 |
| Argentina wins by more than 1.5 goals | 61¢ | +2pp | $29K | kalshi | /markets/argentina-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-argentina-win-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun27jorarg-arg2 |
| Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals | 39¢ | ±0 | $26K | kalshi | /markets/spain-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-spain-wins-by-mor-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26uruesp-esp2 |
| Senegal wins by more than 1.5 goals | 57¢ | +4pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/senegal-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-senegal-wins-by-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26senirq-sen2 |
| Portugal wins by more than 1.5 goals | 27¢ | +2pp | $16K | kalshi | /markets/portugal-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-portugal-wins-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun27colpor-por2 |
| Egypt wins by more than 1.5 goals | 16¢ | +1pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/egypt-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-egypt-wins-by-mor-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26egyiri-egy2 |
| Portugal wins by more than 2.5 goals | 10¢ | +2pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/portugal-wins-by-more-than-25-goals-portugal-wins-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun27colpor-por3 |
| Saudi Arabia wins by more than 2.5 goals | 4¢ | −1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/saudi-arabia-wins-by-more-than-25-goals-saudi-arab-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26cpvksa-ksa3 |
| Cape Verde wins by more than 1.5 goals | 14¢ | −1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/cape-verde-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-cape-verde-w-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26cpvksa-cpv2 |
| France wins by more than 2.5 goals | 17¢ | ±0 | $8K | kalshi | /markets/france-wins-by-more-than-25-goals-france-wins-by-m-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26norfra-fra3 |
| Reg Time: South Africa wins by more than 1.5 goals | 4¢ | — | $5K | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-reg-time-s-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun28rsacan-rsa2 |
| England wins by more than 2.5 goals | 42¢ | +3pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/england-wins-by-more-than-25-goals-england-wins-by-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun27paneng-eng3 |
| Egypt wins by more than 2.5 goals | 5¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/egypt-wins-by-more-than-25-goals-egypt-wins-by-mor-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26egyiri-egy3 |
| Colombia wins by more than 1.5 goals | 7¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/colombia-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-colombia-wins-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun27colpor-col2 |
| Spain wins by more than 2.5 goals | 19¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/spain-wins-by-more-than-25-goals-spain-wins-by-mor-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26uruesp-esp3 |
| Belgium wins by more than 2.5 goals | 43¢ | +4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/belgium-wins-by-more-than-25-goals-belgium-wins-by-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26nzlbel-bel3 |
| Norway wins by more than 1.5 goals | 6¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/norway-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-norway-wins-by-m-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26norfra-nor2 |
| Iran wins by more than 1.5 goals | 8¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/iran-wins-by-more-than-15-goals-iran-wins-by-more-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26egyiri-iri2 |
| Cape Verde wins by more than 2.5 goals | 5¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/cape-verde-wins-by-more-than-25-goals-cape-verde-w-kalshi-kxwcspread-26jun26cpvksa-cpv3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 15 |
| 2026-06-12 | 19 |
| 2026-06-19 | 23 |
| 2026-06-25 | 17 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · France wins by more than 1.5 goals +4pp 29→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Senegal wins by more than 1.5 goals +4pp 50→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · England wins by more than 2.5 goals +4pp 33→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Belgium wins by more than 2.5 goals +4pp 37→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Argentina wins by more than 1.5 goals −3pp 60→57¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 29% probability that Mexico wins a match by more than 1.5 goals—meaning they win 2-0, 3-1, or by any wider margin. The probability sits between England (45%) and Egypt (24%) on similar contracts, suggesting moderate confidence in Mexico's offensive capability. Volume concentration on this contract ($1,786 in 24-hour trades) indicates active interest. The outcome depends primarily on Mexico's goal-scoring efficiency against their opponent's defensive performance. Historical matchup data, current team form, and injury status of key players would be primary drivers of this probability moving higher or lower. The specific matchup date and opponent identity remain critical unknowns affecting confidence in this outcome.

### Key factors

- Mexico's recent goal differential and conversion rate in comparable competition matches
- Opponent's defensive record and goals-against average in similar fixtures
- Starting lineup availability—particularly Mexico's primary attacking players and their opponent's key defenders
- Historical head-to-head goal margin distribution between these specific teams
- Recent form trend: goals scored per match by Mexico over the past 5-10 games versus opponent's goals allowed

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcspread

## License

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