# Will Japan advance further than Korea Republic in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 20 contracts — refreshed 38 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcteamh2h
Updated: 2026-06-19T17:20:17.812Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-03

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France advances further than Portugal | 62¢ | −8pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-france-advance-further-than-portugal-in-the-2-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26frapor-fra |
| Mexico advances further than USA | 30¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-advance-further-than-usa-in-the-2026-m-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26usamex-mex |
| Japan advances further than Korea Republic | 34¢ | +5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-advance-further-than-korea-republic-in-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26jpnkor-jpn |
| Germany advances further than Belgium | 58¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-advance-further-than-belgium-in-the-2-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26gerbel-ger |
| USA advances further than Mexico | 48¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-advance-further-than-mexico-in-the-2026-m-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26usamex-usa |
| Argentina advances further than Brazil | 63¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-advance-further-than-brazil-in-the-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26braarg-arg |
| Netherlands advances further than Norway | 40¢ | −4pp | $749 | kalshi | /markets/will-netherlands-advance-further-than-norway-in-th-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26nednor-ned |
| Korea Republic advances further than Japan | 39¢ | −20pp | $621 | kalshi | /markets/will-korea-republic-advance-further-than-japan-in-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26jpnkor-kor |
| Eliminated same stage | 28¢ | ±0 | $619 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-be-eliminated-in-the-same-stage-as-kore-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26jpnkor-tie |
| Switzerland advances further than Austria | 51¢ | +4pp | $583 | kalshi | /markets/will-switzerland-advance-further-than-austria-in-t-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26suiaut-sui |
| Colombia advances further than Ecuador | 59¢ | −2pp | $339 | kalshi | /markets/will-colombia-advance-further-than-ecuador-in-the-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26colecu-col |
| Portugal advances further than France | 28¢ | −1pp | $315 | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-advance-further-than-france-in-the-2-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26frapor-por |
| Eliminated same stage | 27¢ | −3pp | $285 | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-be-eliminated-in-the-same-stage-as-ur-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26crouru-tie |
| Norway advances further than Netherlands | 39¢ | −6pp | $216 | kalshi | /markets/will-norway-advance-further-than-netherlands-in-th-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26nednor-nor |
| England advances further than Spain | 43¢ | ±0 | $196 | kalshi | /markets/will-england-advance-further-than-spain-in-the-202-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26engesp-eng |
| Spain advances further than England | 50¢ | +5pp | $178 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-advance-further-than-england-in-the-202-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26engesp-esp |
| Eliminated same stage | 21¢ | −2pp | $131 | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-be-eliminated-in-the-same-stage-as-mexico-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26usamex-tie |
| Eliminated same stage | 14¢ | ±0 | $124 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-be-eliminated-in-the-same-stage-as-por-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26frapor-tie |
| Croatia advances further than Uruguay | 21¢ | −1pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-advance-further-than-uruguay-in-the-2-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26crouru-cro |
| Ecuador advances further than Colombia | 23¢ | −8pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-ecuador-advance-further-than-colombia-in-the-kalshi-kxwcteamh2h-26colecu-ecu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 19 |
| 2026-06-12 | 29 |
| 2026-06-19 | 31 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-13 · Eliminated same stage +27pp 2→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · USA advances further than Mexico +24pp 16→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-14 · Switzerland advances further than Austria −23pp 56→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Korea Republic advances further than Japan −20pp 36→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-14 · Eliminated same stage −18pp 29→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 23% probability that Japan will advance further than South Korea in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Japan enters as a higher-ranked team with recent strong tournament performances, while Korea Republic also qualifies regularly but faces tougher group stage dynamics this cycle. The probability would shift based on official group draw results, team roster announcements, and pre-tournament form. The World Cup takes place in June-July 2026, at which point the contract resolves based on which team progresses further in the knockout stage—or is eliminated earlier. Current odds suggest market participants view Japan as the likely deeper performer, though Korea's qualification demonstrates competitive capacity to potentially disrupt that expectation.

### Key factors

- Japan's FIFA ranking and recent World Cup performance history versus Korea Republic's qualification track record and group stage strength
- The specific group assignments and opponent quality each team faces in the tournament draw
- Injury status and player availability of key performers on both squads during the pre-tournament period
- Head-to-head strength in 2022 World Cup performance and subsequent qualification campaigns
- Weather, altitude, and scheduling factors that emerge closer to June 2026 that could disproportionately affect either team's knockout stage progression

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcteamh2h

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