# Will USA score over 0.5 goals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 20 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcteamtotal
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:51.933Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $19K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway over 0.5 goals | 64¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-norway-score-over-05-goals-norway-over-05-goa-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun26norfra-nor1 |
| Argentina over 2.5 goals | 49¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-score-over-25-goals-argentina-over-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27jorarg-arg3 |
| France over 1.5 goals | 60¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-france-score-over-15-goals-france-over-15-goa-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun26norfra-fra2 |
| England over 0.5 goals | 94¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-england-score-over-05-goals-england-over-05-g-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27paneng-eng1 |
| Portugal over 3.5 goals | 7¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-score-over-35-goals-portugal-over-35-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27colpor-por4 |
| Algeria over 1.5 goals | 23¢ | −1pp | $821 | kalshi | /markets/will-algeria-score-over-15-goals-algeria-over-15-g-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27dzaaut-dza2 |
| Austria over 0.5 goals | 70¢ | −4pp | $749 | kalshi | /markets/will-austria-score-over-05-goals-austria-over-05-g-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27dzaaut-aut1 |
| France over 0.5 goals | 87¢ | ±0 | $694 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-score-over-05-goals-france-over-05-goa-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun26norfra-fra1 |
| France over 3.5 goals | 14¢ | ±0 | $689 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-score-over-35-goals-france-over-35-goa-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun26norfra-fra4 |
| Norway over 1.5 goals | 27¢ | ±0 | $636 | kalshi | /markets/will-norway-score-over-15-goals-norway-over-15-goa-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun26norfra-nor2 |
| Portugal over 1.5 goals | 48¢ | +1pp | $547 | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-score-over-15-goals-portugal-over-15-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27colpor-por2 |
| Argentina over 4.5 goals | 12¢ | ±0 | $484 | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-score-over-45-goals-argentina-over-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27jorarg-arg5 |
| Egypt over 1.5 goals | 30¢ | −1pp | $458 | kalshi | /markets/will-egypt-score-over-15-goals-egypt-over-15-goals-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun26egyiri-egy2 |
| Argentina over 3.5 goals | 24¢ | +1pp | $451 | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-score-over-35-goals-argentina-over-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27jorarg-arg4 |
| New Zealand over 2.5 goals | 3¢ | −1pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-zealand-score-over-25-goals-new-zealand-o-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun26nzlbel-nzl3 |
| Algeria over 0.5 goals | 61¢ | −1pp | $331 | kalshi | /markets/will-algeria-score-over-05-goals-algeria-over-05-g-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27dzaaut-dza1 |
| Iran over 2.5 goals | 5¢ | −1pp | $293 | kalshi | /markets/will-iran-score-over-25-goals-iran-over-25-goals-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun26egyiri-iri3 |
| Argentina over 1.5 goals | 74¢ | −1pp | $291 | kalshi | /markets/will-argentina-score-over-15-goals-argentina-over-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27jorarg-arg2 |
| Portugal over 2.5 goals | 21¢ | +2pp | $242 | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-score-over-25-goals-portugal-over-25-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun27colpor-por3 |
| Belgium over 0.5 goals | 94¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-belgium-score-over-05-goals-belgium-over-05-g-kalshi-kxwcteamtotal-26jun26nzlbel-bel1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 38 |
| 2026-06-11 | 13 |
| 2026-06-18 | 46 |
| 2026-06-25 | 41 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Portugal over 1.5 goals +6pp 31→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · France over 1.5 goals +5pp 52→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Algeria over 1.5 goals −5pp 31→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Algeria over 0.5 goals −5pp 67→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Algeria over 1.5 goals +4pp 27→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 47% probability that the USA will score at least one goal in an upcoming match. The current odds suggest roughly even chances, indicating uncertainty about offensive performance. Key factors influencing this probability include the USA's recent scoring form, the opponent's defensive capabilities, and squad composition for the match. The contract will resolve once the match concludes and final goal totals are confirmed. Market participants are pricing in moderate offensive output, with the probability sitting below 50%, suggesting either defensive challenges ahead or a difficult opponent. The resolution depends entirely on the actual match result, which represents the primary catalyst for settling this contract.

### Key factors

- USA's historical scoring rate in recent competitive matches compared to the opponent's defensive record
- Team sheet availability and whether key offensive players are fit and selected for the match
- Opponent identity and defensive strength, as some teams concede fewer chances than others
- Match context such as home/away status, tournament stage, and tactical approach both teams are likely to employ
- Recent form trends showing whether USA has been creating and converting scoring opportunities consistently

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcteamtotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcteamtotal

## License

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