# Will Australia score at least 6 goals in the full tournament of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 9 contracts — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcteamtotalgoals
Updated: 2026-06-28T03:20:50.295Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-03

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $757

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ goals | 21¢ | −4pp | $361 | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-score-at-least-10-goals-in-the-full-to-kalshi-kxwcteamtotalgoals-26mex-10 |
| 13+ goals | 21¢ | −4pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/will-norway-score-at-least-13-goals-in-the-full-to-kalshi-kxwcteamtotalgoals-26nor-13 |
| 19+ goals | 20¢ | +1pp | $125 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-score-at-least-19-goals-in-the-full-to-kalshi-kxwcteamtotalgoals-26fra-19 |
| 12+ goals | 11¢ | −3pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-score-at-least-12-goals-in-the-full-tourn-kalshi-kxwcteamtotalgoals-26usa-12 |
| 8+ goals | 21¢ | +11pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-mexico-score-at-least-8-goals-in-the-full-tou-kalshi-kxwcteamtotalgoals-26mex-8 |
| 9+ goals | 86¢ | −3pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-norway-score-at-least-9-goals-in-the-full-tou-kalshi-kxwcteamtotalgoals-26nor-9 |
| 14+ goals | 25¢ | +2pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-score-at-least-14-goals-in-the-full-to-kalshi-kxwcteamtotalgoals-26bra-14 |
| 14+ goals | 28¢ | +16pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-score-at-least-14-goals-in-the-full-tourn-kalshi-kxwcteamtotalgoals-26usa-14 |
| 8+ goals | 21¢ | −37pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-score-at-least-8-goals-in-the-full-tour-kalshi-kxwcteamtotalgoals-26jpn-8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 18 |
| 2026-06-14 | 20 |
| 2026-06-21 | 26 |
| 2026-06-27 | 27 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · 14+ goals −57pp 70→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · 12+ goals −37pp 39→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 8+ goals −37pp 74→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · 8+ goals +30pp 16→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · 9+ goals +27pp 26→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market contracts on whether Australia will score 6 or more goals across all matches in the 2026 FIFA World Cup tournament. The 20% probability reflects skepticism about Australia reaching that offensive threshold despite qualifying for the tournament. Historical performance matters significantly—Australia averaged around 1.5 goals per match in recent World Cup campaigns, suggesting 6+ goals would require both a longer tournament run and improved attacking output. The primary factors driving this probability are Australia's typical group-stage elimination and moderate goal-scoring consistency relative to stronger competitors. The 2026 tournament structure, with expanded group stages and 80+ total matches, theoretically increases scoring opportunities. Market resolution will depend entirely on Australia's actual match results starting in June 2026, with uncertainty currently high given the tournament remains months away and squad composition remains subject to change.

### Key factors

- Australia's historical World Cup scoring rate has ranged from 2-5 goals per tournament in recent editions (2014-2022), making 6+ goals moderately ambitious
- The tournament format expansion to 48 teams and 80 matches may slightly increase goal-scoring variance, but Australia's group assignment and knockout performance will be decisive
- Australia's typical exit in group stage or early knockout rounds limits total match opportunities; advancing deep would substantially increase probability of reaching 6 goals
- Squad attacking quality relative to peer competitors—strikers' form, injury status, and tactical adjustments leading into June 2026 will materially affect goal-scoring efficiency
- Market comparison data shows Argentina at 45% for 10+ goals and Belgium at 27% for 10+ goals, contextualizing Australia's 20% for 6+ as conservative relative to tournament-wide scoring distributions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcteamtotalgoals
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcteamtotalgoals

## License

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