# Will over 1.5 goals be scored

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 53% across 20 contracts — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wctotal
Updated: 2026-06-25T21:20:50.475Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-12

## Headline

- Probability: 53% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $57K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 59¢ | +2pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26norfra-3 |
| Over 3.5 goals scored | 35¢ | +2pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-goals-be-scored-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26norfra-4 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 50¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26uruesp-3 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 46¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun27colpor-3 |
| Over 1.5 goals scored | 73¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-15-goals-be-scored-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26uruesp-2 |
| Over 0.5 goals scored | 81¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-05-goals-be-scored-over-05-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun27dzaaut-1 |
| Over 0.5 goals scored | 96¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-05-goals-be-scored-over-05-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26nzlbel-1 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 45¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26cpvksa-3 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 32¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun27dzaaut-3 |
| Over 4.5 goals scored | 18¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-goals-be-scored-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26norfra-5 |
| Over 0.5 goals scored | 88¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-05-goals-be-scored-over-05-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun27crogha-1 |
| Over 4.5 goals scored | 26¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-goals-be-scored-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26nzlbel-5 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 68¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26nzlbel-3 |
| Over 5.5 goals scored | 8¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-55-goals-be-scored-over-55-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26norfra-6 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 63¢ | +6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26senirq-3 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 60¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-25-goals-be-scored-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun27jorarg-3 |
| Over 1.5 goals scored | 61¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-15-goals-be-scored-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun27dzaaut-2 |
| Over 0.5 goals scored | 91¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-05-goals-be-scored-over-05-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26cpvksa-1 |
| Over 3.5 goals scored | 23¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-goals-be-scored-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26cpvksa-4 |
| Over 3.5 goals scored | 28¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-goals-be-scored-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxwctotal-26jun26uruesp-4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 45 |
| 2026-06-11 | 44 |
| 2026-06-18 | 55 |
| 2026-06-25 | 48 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Over 2.5 goals scored −7pp 42→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Over 2.5 goals scored +6pp 53→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Over 0.5 goals scored −5pp 90→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Over 1.5 goals scored −5pp 70→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Over 3.5 goals scored +3pp 30→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 56% probability indicates that traders believe there is roughly even odds that a sporting event will see at least 2 goals scored total. The current level reflects a balance between factors that typically correlate with higher-scoring matches and those that suggest defensive efficiency. Key drivers of the probability include team offensive capabilities, defensive strength, playing conditions, and historical scoring patterns between the opponents. The resolution will depend on the actual match outcome, which removes all uncertainty once the event concludes. Traders are currently pricing in a slight lean toward the over, suggesting modest confidence that scoring will exceed the 1.5-goal threshold, though the proximity to 50% indicates meaningful disagreement about likely outcomes.

### Key factors

- Offensive output of participating teams compared to season or period averages
- Defensive record and goals conceded by teams involved in the match
- Recent head-to-head scoring history between the two opponents
- Playing conditions such as weather, venue, and match significance that may affect tactical approach
- Current contract distribution at 69-70¢ versus 30¢ spread indicating moderate certainty rather than consensus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wctotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wctotal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.