# Will Brazil win the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 10 contracts — refreshed 46 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcw
Updated: 2026-07-28T17:20:51.228Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-09

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $387

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 4¢ | — | $234 | kalshi | /markets/will-colombia-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cup-c-kalshi-kxwcw-27-col |
| Brazil | 9¢ | +1pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cup-bra-kalshi-kxwcw-27-bra |
| Spain | 22¢ | +17pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cup-spai-kalshi-kxwcw-27-esp |
| USA | 17¢ | ±0 | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-usa-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cup-usa-kalshi-kxwcw-27-usa |
| England | 10¢ | +16pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-england-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cup-en-kalshi-kxwcw-27-eng |
| Japan | 9¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-japan-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cup-japa-kalshi-kxwcw-27-jpn |
| France | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cup-fra-kalshi-kxwcw-27-fra |
| Germany | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cup-ge-kalshi-kxwcw-27-ger |
| Morocco | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-morocco-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cup-mo-kalshi-kxwcw-27-mar |
| Philippines | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-philippines-win-the-2027-fifa-womens-world-cu-kalshi-kxwcw-27-phi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | 18 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-28 · Spain +17pp 20→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-28 · England +16pp 10→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-28 · Japan +5pp 4→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-27 · Brazil −3pp 12→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 10% probability means prediction markets estimate roughly a 1-in-10 chance Brazil wins the 2027 FIFA Women's World Cup. This positions Brazil as a moderate contender, trailing USA (15%) and Spain (16%) but ahead of Germany (4%). Brazil's ranking reflects both historical strength—the nation has won the tournament twice—and recent performance trends in women's football. The tournament occurs in summer 2027, giving time for roster development, coaching changes, and form shifts across all nations. Key drivers of this probability include Brazil's current FIFA ranking in women's football, performance in qualifying matches leading into 2027, and comparison to rival nations' recent trajectories. Major tournaments and qualification results over the next 18 months will likely shift market expectations materially. The CONMEBOL qualifying campaign will be a critical data point for assessing Brazil's competitive position relative to other contenders.

### Key factors

- Brazil's current FIFA women's ranking and recent performance in international matches versus competitor nations
- Results from CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying matches and regional competitions through 2027
- Coaching stability and roster depth at Brazilian FA, including player injuries and retirements
- Comparative momentum and investment in women's football programs among top contenders like USA, Spain, and England
- Historical tournament performance trends showing whether Brazil maintains or declines relative to rising programs in women's football

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wcw
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wcw

## License

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