# Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 9 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/weeksnum1
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.700Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-26

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least  2 weeks | 82¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iceman-by-drake-spend-2-weeks-at-1-on-the-bil-kalshi-kxweeksnum1-26dec26-ice-2 |
| At least  3 weeks | 63¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iceman-by-drake-spend-3-weeks-at-1-on-the-bil-kalshi-kxweeksnum1-26dec26-ice-3 |
| At least  4 weeks | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iceman-by-drake-spend-4-weeks-at-1-on-the-bil-kalshi-kxweeksnum1-26dec26-ice-4 |
| At least  5 weeks | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iceman-by-drake-spend-5-weeks-at-1-on-the-bil-kalshi-kxweeksnum1-26dec26-ice-5 |
| At least  6 weeks | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-iceman-by-drake-spend-6-weeks-at-1-on-the-bil-kalshi-kxweeksnum1-26dec26-ice-6 |
| at least 3 weeks | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dandelion-by-ella-langley-spend-3-weeks-at-1-kalshi-kxweeksnum1-26dec26-dan-3 |
| at least 4 weeks | 20¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dandelion-by-ella-langley-spend-4-weeks-at-1-kalshi-kxweeksnum1-26dec26-dan-4 |
| at least 5 weeks | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dandelion-by-ella-langley-spend-5-weeks-at-1-kalshi-kxweeksnum1-26dec26-dan-5 |
| at least 6 weeks | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dandelion-by-ella-langley-spend-6-weeks-at-1-kalshi-kxweeksnum1-26dec26-dan-6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 44 |
| 2026-04-25 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 23 |
| 2026-05-09 | 3 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · At least
 2 weeks +3pp 82→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · At least
 6 weeks +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · at least 3 weeks −3pp 26→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether Ella Langley's song 'Dandelion' will occupy the #1 position on the Billboard 200 albums chart for at least four consecutive weeks during 2026. The current 26% probability reflects modest expectations for a four-week run at the top spot. Chart performance depends on sustained consumer demand, competitive releases from other artists, and streaming plus sales volume. Country music albums have faced increased competition on the Billboard 200 in recent years. The outcome will be determined by Billboard's weekly rankings as they are published throughout 2026, with the critical period being whenever the song peaks on the chart and the weeks immediately following.

### Key factors

- Ella Langley's existing fanbase size and streaming engagement metrics compared to typical artists achieving four-week #1 runs
- The competitive landscape of major album releases scheduled for 2026 that would compete for chart dominance during potential peak weeks
- Historical performance data for country music albums on the Billboard 200 in recent years and their typical chart longevity
- Whether 'Dandelion' builds momentum as a single or album track, measured by radio airplay and streaming platform trends
- The difference between chart peaks (which many albums achieve briefly) and sustained four-week tenure at #1 (which relatively few albums accomplish)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/weeksnum1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=weeksnum1

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