# Will Wendy's Company (The) report Above -10% u.s. same-restaurant sales growth in Q2 2026

> Above -10% leads at 92%, runner-up 86% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wen
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.909Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-06

## Headline

- Leader: Above -10% at 92%
- Runner-up: Above -7.5% at 86%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $959

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -10% | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-company-the-report-above-10-us-same-re-kalshi-kxwen-26auguscomp-n10.0 |
| Above -7.5% | 86¢ | −3pp | $391 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-company-the-report-above-75-us-same-re-kalshi-kxwen-26auguscomp-n7.5 |
| Above -5% | 50¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-company-the-report-above-5-us-same-res-kalshi-kxwen-26auguscomp-n5.0 |
| Above -2.5% | 19¢ | +3pp | $557 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-company-the-report-above-25-us-same-re-kalshi-kxwen-26auguscomp-n2.5 |
| Above 0% | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-company-the-report-above-0-us-same-res-kalshi-kxwen-26auguscomp-0.0 |
| Above 2.5% | 6¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-company-the-report-above-25-us-same-re-kalshi-kxwen-26auguscomp-2.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -10% | Above -7.5% | Above -5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 37 | 26 | 24 |
| 2026-06-11 | 94 | 89 | 45 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 89 | — |
| 2026-06-18 | 93 | 89 | 45 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 89 | 47 |
| 2026-06-26 | 92 | 85 | 49 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Above 2.5% +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above -2.5% +3pp 14→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above -7.5% −3pp 88→85¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets estimate an 89% probability that Wendy's U.S. same-restaurant sales will decline less than 10% in Q2 2026, meaning traders expect sales declines in the single digits or better. This reflects expectations about consumer spending patterns and competitive pressures in quick-service restaurants during spring 2026. The high probability leans heavily on avoiding the worst-case scenario of double-digit declines, though contract prices reveal substantial uncertainty about whether sales actually grow (4% probability) or stay flat (11% probability). Wendy's earnings report—typically released 4-6 weeks after quarter-end in late July or early August—will provide the definitive same-store sales figure. Until then, near-term factors like consumer confidence data, employment reports, and comparable-store sales trends from peer restaurants will influence how traders reassess the probability.

### Key factors

- Consumer spending momentum and confidence levels in spring 2026 directly affect quick-service restaurant traffic and ticket sizes
- Competitive promotional activity and market share dynamics among major QSR chains influence whether Wendy's sales trend better or worse than category averages
- Labor costs and commodity inflation impact pricing decisions, affecting same-store sales performance relative to historical baselines
- The market assigns only 11% probability to sales above -2.5%, indicating traders expect moderately negative comps rather than positive growth
- Wendy's Q2 2026 earnings release (expected late July or early August 2026) will settle the contract with actual reported same-restaurant sales growth

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wen

## License

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