# Will average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator for July 2026 be at least $8.70

> At least $8.66 leads at 97%, runner-up 81% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wenbaconator
Updated: 2026-07-09T20:20:48.881Z
Category: general · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-02

## Headline

- Leader: At least $8.66 at 97%
- Runner-up: At least $8.67 at 81%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $399

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least $8.66 | 97¢ | +2pp | $114 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-us-price-of-a-wendys-baconator-for-ju-kalshi-kxwenbaconator-26aug02-t8.66 |
| At least $8.67 | 81¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-us-price-of-a-wendys-baconator-for-ju-kalshi-kxwenbaconator-26aug02-t8.67 |
| At least $8.68 | 62¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-us-price-of-a-wendys-baconator-for-ju-kalshi-kxwenbaconator-26aug02-t8.68 |
| At least $8.69 | 48¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-us-price-of-a-wendys-baconator-for-ju-kalshi-kxwenbaconator-26aug02-t8.69 |
| At least $8.70 | 34¢ | +15pp | $285 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-us-price-of-a-wendys-baconator-for-ju-kalshi-kxwenbaconator-26aug02-t8.70 |
| At least $8.71 | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-us-price-of-a-wendys-baconator-for-ju-kalshi-kxwenbaconator-26aug02-t8.71 |
| At least $8.72 | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-average-us-price-of-a-wendys-baconator-for-ju-kalshi-kxwenbaconator-26aug02-t8.72 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least $8.66 | At least $8.67 | At least $8.68 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 94 | 57 | 43 |
| 2026-07-08 | 96 | 81 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · At least $8.67 +24pp 57→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · At least $8.70 +15pp 17→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates whether the average U.S. price of a Wendy's Baconator will reach at least $8.70 in July 2026, with traders currently assigning 94% probability to prices at $8.66 or above. The steep pricing structure suggests consensus around a narrow range between $8.66 and $8.71, reflecting expectations that inflation and menu price adjustments will push the sandwich into this zone. Historical Baconator pricing trends, Wendy's corporate guidance on menu inflation, and actual July 2026 pricing data—available after month-end—will determine the outcome. The declining probabilities across higher price thresholds indicate traders expect prices closer to $8.66-$8.68 rather than exceeding $8.71, though confidence diminishes sharply above $8.70. Resolution depends on verified average pricing across U.S. locations by early August 2026.

### Key factors

- Historical Baconator pricing trajectory from 2024-2026 relative to inflation rate and Wendy's stated menu adjustment policies
- Regional pricing variation and whether the U.S. average calculation method weights by location density or counts equally
- Wendy's second-quarter 2026 earnings guidance and any announced menu price changes taking effect in July 2026
- Competitor pricing actions by McDonald's, Burger King, and other fast-casual chains affecting demand and price elasticity
- Actual transaction data from July 2026 showing average Baconator prices at sampled U.S. Wendy's locations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wenbaconator
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wenbaconator
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.