# Will Wendy's Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 86.5

> Above 85 leads at 75%, runner-up 68% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wencc
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:51.446Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 85 at 75%
- Runner-up: Above 85.5 at 68%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $165

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 85 | 75¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t85 |
| Above 85.5 | 68¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t85.5 |
| Above 86 | 62¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t86 |
| Above 86.5 | 52¢ | −5pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t86.5 |
| Above 87 | 50¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t87 |
| Above 87.5 | 49¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t87.5 |
| Above 88 | 40¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t88 |
| Above 88.5 | 32¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t88.5 |
| Above 89 | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t89 |
| Above 89.5 | 22¢ | +3pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t89.5 |
| Above 90 | 16¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t90 |
| Above 90.5 | 13¢ | −5pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t90.5 |
| Above 91 | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wendys-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-august-2-kalshi-kxwencc-26sep07-t91 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 85 | Above 85.5 | Above 86 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 60 | 60 | 59 |
| 2026-08-05 | 68 | 67 | 66 |
| 2026-08-06 | 75 | 69 | 61 |
| 2026-08-07 | 76 | 70 | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 74 | 67 | 60 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-06 · Above 89.5 −31pp 58→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 89 −31pp 62→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 89 +29pp 33→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Above 89.5 +24pp 34→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Above 88 −21pp 62→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents whether Wendy's total monthly credit card spending will exceed $86.5 million in August 2026. The market is pricing this outcome near 50%, suggesting meaningful uncertainty around where spend will land within a narrow range—contracts cluster between 85 and 87 with nearly identical pricing. The primary drivers are Wendy's promotional activity and consumer frequency during the month, as credit card spend directly reflects transaction volume and average check size. Resolution will occur when Wendy's reports August financial data, likely in September. Historically, summer months show seasonal variations in quick-service restaurant traffic, and back-to-school consumer behavior patterns beginning late August could create upward or downward pressure. The tight clustering of contracts near the $86.5 threshold suggests market participants view this outcome as genuinely uncertain rather than tilted toward either direction.

### Key factors

- August 2026 promotional calendar and discount intensity compared to historical summer periods
- Back-to-school consumer spending patterns beginning late August and their impact on Wendy's frequency
- Weather conditions and summer travel patterns affecting foot traffic during the measurement period
- Competitive promotional activity from other QSR chains potentially affecting market share
- Historical August credit card spend baseline and deviation range from prior years

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/wencc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=wencc

## License

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