# West Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner: BJP

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 15 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election-winner-bjp
Updated: 2026-05-04T16:20:11.041Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 42% / Polymarket 23% — 19pp spread
- 24h volume: $197K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 57¢ | −4pp | $90K | kalshi | /markets/western-conference-finals-winner-colorado-avalanch-kalshi-kxnhlwest-26-col |
| Gavin Newsom | 17¢ | ±0 | $20K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-gavin-newsom-polymarket-0x4567b275e6b667a6217f5cb4f06a797d3a1eaf1d0281fb5bc8c75e2046ae7e57 |
| Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 34¢ | +1pp | $19K | polymarket | /markets/peru-presidential-election-winner-roberto-snchez-p-polymarket-0x2cd24d17f5680dc6e7b7d67c712a223ae85550745597e81bd2d2b8d073443951 |
| Donald Trump | 3¢ | −1pp | $16K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-donald-trump-polymarket-0xce9a5fa30fe74e323b4a8f15afbb0b7a41a537aa880779ddf7dee22223b2f34a |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 27¢ | +4pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/western-conference-finals-winner-vegas-golden-knig-kalshi-kxnhlwest-26-vgk |
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 6¢ | ±0 | $12K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-a-polymarket-0xb611b3a7173f69e412b55561ed265d849e36693c248ff620d0e981c5b3f2e325 |
| Republican | 34¢ | +2pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-republican-polymarket-0x2c00cb09722a0f0501c5e49131b898ed57bb5c075db4dc2bcbc14908f45b8c48 |
| Tucker Carlson | 4¢ | ±0 | $6K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-tucker-carlson-polymarket-0xd94b47bdeba16ae948bfb147bda059f3543d6fca73291644dfff5268bba7a797 |
| Katie Porter | 3¢ | ±0 | $6K | polymarket | /markets/california-governor-election-winner-katie-porter-polymarket-0x11375fe1cf6665bbdee0cba5c2d48be1dedafab87841bd2eb8bc778c0402f457 |
| Marco Rubio | 10¢ | −7pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-marco-rubio-polymarket-0x2053d8515f1b8cbeea4ccdb56e60e89c2617e43a8660d95166b8e71d27865277 |
| Republican | 95¢ | +2pp | $72 | polymarket | /markets/west-virginia-senate-election-winner-republican-polymarket-0x45603784c0d1f2dab989eee4771b16a64d8ae01eac147df2e56a1582def49aab |
| Sheila Garrity | 3¢ | −5pp | $36 | polymarket | /markets/galway-west-by-election-winner-sheila-garrity-polymarket-0xa46d2b031e0c57fb04888e3747747f955a71369881f5460b2fc23e923f878ecc |
| Noel Thomas | 68¢ | −2pp | $17 | polymarket | /markets/galway-west-by-election-winner-noel-thomas-polymarket-0x338e693bdb81d0cb315284ac319a051eb9d7fd8f58ca94580369093828162c92 |
| Mike Cubbard | 16¢ | −6pp | $14 | polymarket | /markets/galway-west-by-election-winner-mike-cubbard-polymarket-0x4884312a9e0c3fe05be1ca8b872f7e7818affbd20b10c047ac1a74bac9b92797 |
| Mark Lohan | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/galway-west-by-election-winner-mark-lohan-polymarket-0x8b2b903ff76adf60a562841cac343151da1d2e4f5f9b9243ca802179511d236b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 17 |
| 2026-04-20 | 18 |
| 2026-04-27 | 21 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Tucker Carlson +23pp 3→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Tucker Carlson −23pp 26→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Sheila Garrity +14pp 7→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Mark Lohan +13pp 9→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Abelardo de la Espriella +12pp 6→18¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election-winner-bjp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=west-bengal-legislative-assembly-election-winner-bjp
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.