# Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 47% across 3 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/western-sydney-wanderers-fc-vs-melbourne-victory-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:58.322Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 46% / Polymarket 48% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $118

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Swans | 72¢ | +21pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/sydney-swans-vs-north-melbourne-kangaroos-winner-s-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may082315sydnmk-syd |
| North Melbourne Kangaroos | 20¢ | +11pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/sydney-swans-vs-north-melbourne-kangaroos-winner-n-kalshi-kxaflgame-26may082315sydnmk-nmk |
| Winner: Melbourne Victory | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/a-league-soccer-winner-melbourne-victory-polymarket-0x040fbcc2054a33d45193ceebcbcb3bede3ceb3742ba2538b30fd5029f6561163 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 47 |
| 2026-04-26 | 46 |
| 2026-05-03 | 22 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Sydney Swans +21pp 7→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · North Melbourne Kangaroos +11pp 4→15¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/western-sydney-wanderers-fc-vs-melbourne-victory-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=western-sydney-wanderers-fc-vs-melbourne-victory-fc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.