# What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in April 2026 — ↓ $108

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-airbnb-inc-abnb-hit-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:56.305Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 60% / Polymarket 29% — 31pp spread
- 24h volume: $71K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 45,000 | 28¢ | −2pp | $30K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↓ 40,000 | 22¢ | −1pp | $17K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↓ 50,000 | 38¢ | −4pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| ↑ 110,000 | 26¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-110000-polymarket-0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 |
| ↓ 55,000 | 49¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↓ 35,000 | 14¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 48¢ | +2pp | $360 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 200,000 | 4¢ | −8pp | $299 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-200000-polymarket-0xac32e73aa9e0dae801d88d4f81efd2ef3fa0f04b815f3a0e74426f0762e668cd |
| Acquisition | 46¢ | +6pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-acqu |
| Social Media | 59¢ | −7pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-soci |
| Home Sharing | 47¢ | −4pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-home |
| Headwind | 65¢ | −6pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-head |
| World Cup | 74¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-worl |
| Take Rate | 56¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-take |
| Tailwind | 60¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-tail |
| Boutique | 66¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-bout |
| China | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-chin |
| International | 75¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-inte |
| Service Agent | 83¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-serv |
| Domestic | 77¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-dome |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 39 |
| 2026-04-19 | 39 |
| 2026-04-26 | 53 |
| 2026-05-03 | 48 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Take Rate +30pp 46→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Take Rate −26pp 72→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Take Rate −16pp 76→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Home Sharing −13pp 61→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · ↓ 45,000 −9pp 39→30¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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