# What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit in May 2026 — ↑ $410

> ↓ $380 leads at 9%, runner-up 4% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-alphabet-inc-googl-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:09.730Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↓ $380 at 9%
- Runner-up: ↓ $370 at 4%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $380 | 9¢ | +3pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-alphabet-inc-googl-hit-in-may-2026-380-polymarket-0x3134f4f2cf7875ac87cb30ceab6c456fae7a189d72345b1be974357131451be7 |
| ↓ $370 | 4¢ | −14pp | $293 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-alphabet-inc-googl-hit-in-may-2026-370-polymarket-0x09c081dee0879d29efa89598a544f779dbe05fcccb24e4cd4480b96d05f30979 |
| ↑ $410 | 3¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-alphabet-inc-googl-hit-in-may-2026-410-polymarket-0x9def76550076528b77ee731423b5ec7f11fa631ffaf8181841ab51320ecac53b |
| ↓ $350 | 3¢ | −2pp | $183 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-alphabet-inc-googl-hit-in-may-2026-350-polymarket-0x007872d5c0dad26f2a515e5cda590fc3184613c090122e1565ff352f68902a12 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓ $380 | ↓ $370 | ↑ $410 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 40 | 26 | 67 |
| 2026-05-21 | 57 | 23 | 25 |
| 2026-05-27 | 23 | 6 | 10 |
| 2026-05-28 | 26 | — | 8 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · ↓ $380 −29pp 52→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · ↑ $410 −18pp 29→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ↑ $410 +17pp 12→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · ↓ $380 −15pp 67→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · ↓ $370 −15pp 38→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents a 68% probability that Alphabet's stock will reach $410 or higher at some point during May 2026. The elevated odds reflect either strong recent momentum in the stock or market expectations of bullish catalysts within the month. The probability could shift substantially based on near-term earnings announcements, AI product developments, or broader market conditions affecting tech valuations. Traders are pricing in a meaningful chance the stock closes the month below key support levels ($380, $370), as evidenced by the runner-up contract at 40% and the distribution of bids across lower price targets. Since we are mid-month, the resolution window is relatively narrow, making recent price action and intraday volatility critical inputs for contract holders.

### Key factors

- GOOGL's current price relative to $410 strike and remaining trading days in May 2026
- 24-hour volume concentration ($4,651 on the $410 contract vs. $2,025 on the $380 contract) indicates which outcome attracts more liquidity
- Implied volatility and the width of outcomes ($330–$420 range) suggests market uncertainty about near-term directional catalysts
- Historical correlation between tech sector moves and Alphabet's performance in the final two weeks of May
- Any scheduled earnings calls, product announcements, or macroeconomic data releases before month-end

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-alphabet-inc-googl-hit-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-alphabet-inc-googl-hit-may

## License

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